Top 3 MLB Picks & Predictions: Thursday (7/23)
There are five MLB games today, and I'm making picks for three of them. Below, I explain why the Royals and Tigers are each going to struggle to score, highlight why the Rays and Blue Jays should be in for a high-scoring contest and pick a winner between the Twins and Guardians. Here are the best MLB picks for Thursday, July 23.
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Thursday’s Best MLB Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers
The Royals and Tigers have played six times this season, with the total reaching nine runs just twice. Only one of those contests saw more than 10 runs.
In three of the six meetings, one team scored only one run. Two of those games finished 2-1, while the other ended 5-1. Considering the pitching matchup, I expect another low-scoring contest.
Tigers starter Troy Melton has been outstanding this year. He has an ERA of 1.80, a WHIP of 0.87 and he's allowed one or fewer earned runs in five consecutive starts. Royals starter Randy Dobnak has only three starts, but all have been solid, as he's allowed two or fewer earned runs in each appearance. Additionally, both teams rank 20th or worse in total runs.
Pick: Under 8.5 Runs (-115)
Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays
Shane Bieber used to instill fear in every batter he faced. That hasn't been the case this season. While he's coming off a solid six-inning, three-hit start, he has a 5.70 ERA and 1.73 WHIP in five appearances this season. Bieber has allowed at least two earned runs in four of his five starts, and he's about to face a lineup with three home runs against him in just 29 at-bats.
Then there is Rays starter Ian Seymour. While he has a 6-2 record, his 4.79 ERA leaves a lot to be desired. He's allowed at least three earned runs in three consecutive games, failing to pitch more than 3.1 innings in either of his last two starts.
Unfortunately for Seymour, his numbers against this Blue Jays lineup aren't good. He's allowed 14 hits and walked three batters in 41 plate appearances. That's an allowed batting average of .368 and an on-base percentage (OBP) of .415. Seymour has also allowed eight earned runs.
Pick: Over 8.5 Runs (-108)
Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Guardians
Guardians starter Gavin Williams has been excellent against the Twins throughout his career. He's allowed this lineup to hit just .213 against him, while striking out 31 of 115 batters faced. However, he has struggled with walks, giving up seven. Earlier this season, he allowed 10 hits and five earned runs in six innings against the Twins.
While Williams pitched better against the Twins on July 9th, allowing just two earned runs in seven innings, I still give the edge to the Twins.
Taj Bradley was phenomenal in his only start against the Guardians, striking out 10 batters and allowing just one earned run in seven innings. While Bradley's career numbers against the Guardians aren't as impressive as Williams' against the Twins, he has struck out 18 batters in 50 plate appearances.
Ultimately, this comes down to which offense I trust more. The Twins have scored 495 runs, which is tied for the seventh-most in the league. Meanwhile, the Guardians have scored just 416, the third-fewest in the Majors.
Pick: Twins Moneyline (+118)
Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.