Top 3 MLB Picks & Predictions: Thursday (7/30)
Tonight, the Pirates will look to continue their domination of the Reds, and considering who's starting for Cincinnati, I feel strongly that the Pirates will earn the win. Then, I highlight why the Red Sox should have no trouble with the Athletics and why the Nationals and Braves are destined for a high-scoring game. Here are the best MLB picks for Thursday, July 30th.
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Thursday’s Best MLB Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds
The Pirates and Reds have met nine times this season, with the Pirates coming out on top six times. But this play is based on more than just the Pirates dominating the season series. It also has a lot to do with Reds starter Rhett Lowder.
When Lowder faced the Pirates earlier this season, he allowed five hits, walked four batters and gave up eight earned runs in just 1.1 innings. The Reds ultimately lost that game 17-7. Lowder has a 5.61 ERA entering this game. Two starts ago, he gave up 11 hits and eight earned runs in 2.1 innings to the Rockies.
It's a bullpen day for the Pirates, who will start Yohan Ramirez. While the Pirates are just 1-3 in Ramirez's last four appearances, they also haven't allowed more than five runs in any of those games. Considering how poorly Lowder has pitched, if the Pirates can hold the Reds to five runs or fewer, they should easily win this game.
Pick: Pirates Moneyline (-112)
Boston Red Sox at Athletics
I wish the price was a little better, but this is still easily one of the best bets of today's slate. Sonny Gray gets the start for the Red Sox, and his presence has all but guaranteed victory for the Red Sox this season. He boasts a record of 12-2, and the Red Sox are 14-5 in his starts this season.
Gray doesn't have much experience against this Athletics lineup. He's faced just 32 batters, striking out six and allowing three earned runs. These numbers are fairly average, which is exactly how I'd describe the Athletics' offense. They rank 16th in runs scored (476) and 14th in batting average.
The Athletics have lost four of their last five games, with each of those losses coming by at least two runs. Two of those defeats came at the hands of the Red Sox. Meanwhile, the Red Sox remain one of the hottest teams in baseball, and their last five wins have all been by multiple runs.
Pick: Red Sox -1.5 (-110)
Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves
Two of the best offensive teams in the league start a new series tonight, and I'm expecting a lot of runs. The Nationals and Braves have already met seven times this season. Three games have featured more than nine runs, while five have featured at least nine. That said, the last time these teams met was the end of May, and their last two contests finished with three or fewer runs.
However, I'm not putting much stock in those last two games for a few reasons. The Nationals are the highest-scoring team in the league, with 596 runs. That's 33 more than any other team. The Braves have scored the sixth-most runs.
Then there is the pitching matchup for tonight. Nationals starter Jake Irvin enters with a 5.23 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP. Braves starter Grant Holmes has a 3.79 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. These two pitched great when they faced each other on May 23rd, a game which the Nationals won 2-0. But Irvin hasn't touched the mound since then. I expect him to be rusty and pitch closer to what we saw when he faced the Braves in April, a game the Braves won 9-4. And Holmes has allowed three earned runs in back-to-back starts.
Pick: Over 9.5 Runs (-115)
Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.