Top 3 MLB Picks & Predictions: Thursday (8/13)
Today, I have my eye on two favorites and one game that I expect to be low-scoring. Below, I explain why I expect the Guardians to defeat the Tigers again, and why I like the Yankees to cruise past the Mariners. Then, I highlight why I expect the starting pitchers in the Phillies-Twins game to have the advantage. Here are the best MLB picks for Thursday, August 13th.
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Thursday’s Best MLB Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Cleveland Guardians at Detroit Tigers
I know this game is being played in Detroit, but I still can't believe that the Guardians are favored by so little. The Guardians are 7-1 against the Tigers this season, and they're putting a very hot pitcher on the mound today.
Parker Messick hasn't allowed more than two earned runs in a single start since June 29th. That's a streak of six consecutive appearances. During that time, he has allowed just seven earned runs, while pitching at least five innings in all but one game.
Meanwhile, Tigers starter Keider Montero has allowed at least four earned runs in two of his last three starts. When he and Messick faced each other earlier this season, Montero actually pitched well, but the Guardians still earned the 4-3 victory.
Now, with Messick pitching significantly better than Montero and the Guardians dominating the season series, I wouldn't be surprised if Cleveland wins this game by multiple runs.
Pick: Guardians Moneyline (-120)
Seattle Mariners at New York Yankees
There's a lot to like about the Yankees entering today's game. First, they've won four of their last five games. They've outscored the Mariners 14-6 in the first two games of this current series, winning each game by at least three runs.
Second, Max Fried is pitching really well right now. He's allowed just one earned run in his last 11.2 innings, and he has fantastic numbers against this Mariners' lineup. In his career, Fried is allowing the Mariners to hit just .234 against him, and he's only allowed two extra-base hits and two earned runs in 77 at-bats.
And finally, the Mariners are simply falling apart. They've lost six consecutive games, with four of those losses coming by at least three runs. The Yankees are hitting .315 off Mariners starter Logan Gilbert in his career, and he's allowed at least three earned runs in four of his last five starts.
When Gilbert faced the Yankees earlier this season, he allowed seven hits and five earned runs in 5.1 innings of a 5-0 Mariners' loss.
Pick: Yankees -1.5 (+150)
Philadelphia Phillies at Minnesota Twins
Phillies starter Aaron Nola has not had a good season. He's just 3-9 this year with a 5.47 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP. However, he has absolutely dominated this Twins lineup throughout his career.
The Twins are hitting just .145 off Nola, and no batter other than Josh Bell has recorded an extra-base hit against him. For as much as Nola has struggled, he's pitched at least five innings in seven consecutive games. He's allowed more than three earned runs just once during that span.
Then there is Twins starter Taj Bradley. He has allowed three earned runs in back-to-back games, but he has the 37th-best ERA in the league. Other than Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber, no Phillies hitters have done any real damage against Bradley. Plus, the Phillies' offense has scored just one run in its last two games. I think this is going to be a pitcher's duel early.
Pick: First 5 Innings Under 4.5 Runs (-114)
Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.