Top 3 MLB Picks & Predictions: Thursday (8/20)
There are only nine MLB games today, and I'm offering my top pick for three contests. Below, I explain why the Mariners and Brewers should score plenty, why I expect the Angels to struggle against the Astros and why I expect the Orioles to upset the Yankees. Here are the best MLB picks for Thursday, August 20th.
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Thursday’s Best MLB Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Seattle Mariners at Milwaukee Brewers
Thirty-four runs have been scored in this series so far - 22 of those were scored by the Brewers in the first game of the series, but the Mariners bounced back nicely yesterday to win 7-5. Considering how the first two games went, I'm a bit surprised that the total is set at just eight runs. Especially after looking at the pitching matchup.
Mariners starter George Kirby has a respectable 3.89 ERA and a decent 1.31 WHIP, but he's allowed at least five earned runs in two of his last four starts. He didn't pitch more than 4.2 innings in either game.
Kirby’s numbers against the Brewers are solid, as Milwaukee is hitting just .200 against him. But the Brewers are the fifth-highest scoring team in the league, and it's hard to overlook that, especially since Kirby has been very inconsistent all season.
Brewers starter Robert Gasser has allowed at least two runs in seven of his last nine appearances. While the Mariners are the lowest-scoring team in the league, Gasser has a 4.54 ERA. It might be tempting to just take the Brewers team total over, but I believe that with Gasser on the mound, the combined total for both teams is the safer bet.
Pick: Over 8.0 Runs (-116)
Los Angeles Angels at Houston Astros
The Angels are one of the lowest-scoring teams in the league, and they're about to face a starting pitcher that they've had almost no success against this season. Astros pitcher Peter Lambert has started twice against the Angels this year. They’ve scored three or fewer runs in each of those games.
Lambert enters this game having allowed two or fewer earned runs in eight consecutive starts. He's pitched at least five innings in each of those games. Lambert has held the Angels to just a .184 batting average in his career, and they have only one extra-base hit off of him.
The Angels enter this game having scored three or fewer runs in four consecutive games. They've also scored four or fewer runs in seven of their last eight games against the Astros. The price for this team total under isn't great, but everything points towards the Angels struggling yet again.
Pick: Angels Team Total Under 3.5 Runs (-120)
New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles
The Yankees have taken the first two games of their current series against the Orioles, winning each game by two runs. However, despite the Orioles being on a three-game losing streak, I expect them to win this game.
One of the main reasons I like the Orioles is Kyle Bradish. The Baltimore starter has already faced the Yankees twice this season. While he was shelled in his first appearance, he pitched six innings and allowed just one hit in his second start against his division rivals. The Orioles won that game 7-0.
The Yankees are hitting just .191 off Bradish in his career, and they enter this matchup struggling at the plate. They've scored four or fewer runs in seven of their last nine games.
And finally, Gerrit Cole starts for the Yankees tonight. He's pitched very well of late, but the Orioles have had success against him in the past. While the Orioles are hitting just .220 against him, they have hit three home runs in 41 at-bats. And the Yankees have struggled to give Cole run support of late, scoring three or fewer runs in six of his last seven starts.
Pick: Orioles Moneyline (+100)
Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.