Top 3 MLB Picks & Predictions: Thursday (9/24)
For today's slate, I'm focusing on offenses. Below, I explain why the Pirates should be able to score plenty against the Cardinals and why you should consider taking an alt total when the Reds face the Braves. Then, I explain why the offenses in the Rays-Yankees matchup will struggle against the starting pitchers they're facing. Here are the best MLB picks for Thursday, September 24th.
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Thursday’s Best MLB Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates
With Paul Skenes on the mound for the Pirates, I understand why the total for this game is so low. That said, I think the Pirates' offense is being severely undervalued against Kyle Leahy.
Leahy has struggled in September, allowing 11 earned runs in just 8.2 innings. In his last start, he allowed five hits and six earned runs to the Nationals, and earlier this month, he allowed six hits and five earned runs to the Rockies. While these are two of the top seven scoring offenses in the league, so are the Pirates.
Leahy pitched three solid innings against the Pirates at the end of August, allowing just one earned run. However, the Pirates still scored six runs in that game. And when he faced Pittsburgh earlier this season, he allowed two home runs in a game that the Cardinals ultimately won 11-7.
Pick: Pirates Team Total Over 3.5 Runs (-115)
Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees
Ian Seymour has allowed at least three earned runs in six of his last seven appearances, but he has great numbers against the Yankees in his career. While he has allowed three home runs, he's also struck out 20 of the 40 batters he's faced while holding the Yankees to a .231 batting average.
Cam Schlittler gets the start for the Yankees tonight, and there isn't much to say about his season that you probably don't already know. His 1.94 ERA is second in the league, and he has a 0.91 WHIP. He's allowed one or fewer earned runs in eight consecutive starts, pitching at least 5.1 innings in each.
Schlittler has struck out 21 of the 73 Rays he's faced, and he's holding them to an OPS of just .588. The Rays have managed to score only six earned runs off him in those at-bats. The last time Schlittler faced the Rays, he pitched eight innings, allowing four hits and one earned run, while striking out eight.
Pick: First 5 Innings Under 3.5 Runs (-128)
Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Braves
Brady Singer's recent starts have been absolutely disastrous. His ERA stands at 5.67 after he has allowed at least six earned runs in each of his last three appearances. He's allowed at least three earned runs in 11 straight appearances.
Singe faced the Braves earlier this season, allowing two home runs and three earned runs in five innings. In his career, the Braves have hit seven home runs off him, walked 11 times in 98 at-bats and have a .920 OPS.
Tyler Mahle has been solid since joining the Braves, holding all eight of his opponents to one earned run or fewer. However, in his only other start against the Reds this season, he gave up eight hits, eight earned runs and four home runs in just four innings.
Pick: Over 9.5 Runs (+176)
Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.