Top 3 MLB Picks & Predictions: Thursday (9/3)
Below, I highlight why I expect the Royals to lead after five innings against the Marlins. Then, I explain which offense has the upper hand when the Brewers and Cubs battle in Chicago. And finally, I discuss why the Mariners should dominate the Athletics for the fourth time in a row. Here are the best MLB picks for Thursday, September 3rd.
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Thursday’s Best MLB Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Miami Marlins at Kansas City Royals
FanDuel Sportsbook lists both the Royals and the Marlins at -112 to win the first five innings, which is why I think there is a lot of value in backing Kansas City. Michael Wacha gets the start for the Royals, and he has been incredible of late. In his last two starts, he's pitched 15 innings, allowing just seven hits and one run. The Royals have won the first five innings in four of his last five starts.
While I expect Wacha to shut down the Marlins' offense, the Royals' batters are a lot less trustworthy. The Royals currently rank 21st in total runs, and they're hitting just .237 against Marlins starter Sandy Alcantara.
That said, Alcantara's most recent start wasn't great, as he allowed eight hits and four earned runs in six innings. He's now allowed at least three earned runs in two of his last three starts, and allowing one run in this game may be all it takes for the Royals to hold a lead entering the sixth inning.
Pick: Royals First Five Innings Moneyline (-112)
Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs
Two of the three highest-scoring teams in the league meet tonight. Yet, the total is set at just eight runs. While blindly taking the over may be tempting, I don't expect the Cubs to score much in this game. Brewers starter Logan Henderson has a 2.48 ERA, and he's allowed one earned run in three consecutive starts.
That said, I expect the Brewers to score plenty. They've scored nine runs in back-to-back games against the Cubs. Tonight, they face Kevin Gausman. He has a 4.52 ERA, and in his last start, he allowed five earned runs in just five innings. Gausman has allowed at least three runs in three of his last four starts.
Gausman has excellent numbers against the Brewers in his career. He's held Milwaukee batters to just a .185 batting average in 108 at-bats. Even though he had a good start against the Brewers earlier this season, Milwaukee still scored seven runs in that game.
Pick: Brewers Team Total Over 4.5 Runs (+114)
Athletics at Seattle Mariners
The Mariners and Athletics have met six times this season. The Athletics won the first two games, but the Mariners won the last four. Each of their last three wins was by at least three runs, with two of them by at least seven.
Athletics starter Jack Perkins takes the mound tonight. He enters with a 6.42 ERA, and he's allowed at least five earned runs in three of his last six starts. Earlier this season, he pitched 4.2 innings against the Mariners, in a game that Seattle ultimately won 9-2.
The Mariners have scored the fewest runs in the league this season, but the Athletics have allowed the most runs. In a battle of weakness versus weakness, the Mariners have come out on top more often than not. And with how poorly Perkins has pitched this season, I'll back the Mariners to win easily again.
Pick: Mariners -1.5 (+110)
Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.