Top 3 MLB Player Props for Saturday, July 30th (2022)
We’re scheduled for a full 15-game Major League Baseball slate on this stacked Saturday in sports. The action gets underway as early as 1:10 p.m. ET with the Guardians taking on the Rays in Tampa. Other notable matchups include the Brewers vs. the Red Sox at Fenway and the Twins squaring off against the Padres out west.
Here are my top three player props for today.
Odds Courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Nick Castellanos O/U 1.5 Total Bases
The Phillies picked up wins in each of the first two games of their four-game set with the Pirates this weekend. Game three of the series is set for 7:15 p.m. ET tonight from PNC Park with a pitching matchup featuring Ranger Suarez and Mitch Keller.
This season, Keller has been a serviceable option for the Pirates but ultimately comes in at just 3-7 with a 4.55 ERA and 1.42 WHIP over 19 starts. The right-hander gave up three earned runs on five hits over 6.0 innings against the Marlins last time. It was a no-decision effort that Pittsburgh lost and moved to 7-12 in his appearances this year.
This Phillies lineup has had Keller’s number in the past, racking up 18 hits over 43 at-bats (.419) against the righty. Nick Castellanos has faced him 21 times in his career and collected seven hits (.333). That includes a pair of home runs and two doubles. Castellanos may be starting to heat up as he’s 5-10 (.500) this series with a double. The star outfielder has raised his average to .253 (83rd) and has eight homers (148th) to his name in 2022. I like him to stay hot and collect at least two total bases tonight.
Bet: Nick Castellanos Over 1.5 Total Bases (+110 via DraftKings)
Rhys Hoskins O/U 1.5 Total Bases
Let’s keep it in the same game and move towards the top of the lineup with Rhys Hoskins. The first baseman is coming off a 4-4 night in Pittsburgh, where he drove in three RBI. That includes a two-run bomb in the 10th to put the Phillies ahead 4-2, which was ultimately the final score. He’s now 6-9 (.667) in the series with a homer and a double.
Hoskins has only faced Keller three times in his career, but he’s a perfect 2-2 (1.000) with a walk. Both hits were for extra bases as he recorded a triple and a double. Let’s ride with him over on total bases tonight.
Bet: Rhys Hoskin Over 1.5 Total Bases (+120 via DraftKings)
Gavin Lux O/U 1.5 Total Bases
The Dodgers won their third straight game last night and second straight against the Rockies in their divisional series. They’ll look to keep it rolling tonight as they turn to Clayton Kershaw to handle the starting pitching responsibilities. As for the Rockies, they’ll go with Kyle Freeland in this game scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET from Coors Field.
All things considered (like pitching half of his games at Coors Field), Freeland is putting together a decent season. The southpaw comes in at 5-7 with a 4.64 ERA (57th) and 1.36 WHIP (53rd) over 19 starts in 2022. Freeland was excellent last time, posting 7.0 scoreless innings against the Brewers in Milwaukee. He allowed just four hits and a walk while striking out seven. But that’s the only bright spot on his resume over the last four starts. Freeland’s up to a 5.87 ERA in July, and his WHIP sits at 1.30 over 23.0 innings this month.
Enter Gavin Lux. The util-man is batting .303 (15th) on the year with four long balls and 30 RBI. Lux is hitting .338 this month with nine extra-base hits over 71 at-bats. Furthermore, he’s gone 5-9 (.556) against Freeland in his career. I’m expecting Lux to keep swinging a hot bat and reach at least two total bases tonight in Denver.
Bet: Gavin Lux Over 1.5 Total Bases (+105 via DraftKings)
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