Top 3 NASCAR Betting Picks for Saturday (Bristol Night Race)
The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Thunder Valley this weekend for a playoff race at Bristol Motor Speedway. The world’s most famous half-mile always brings out the best in drivers, and it should give us an action-packed Saturday night.
Last week’s picks went a respectable 2-1, and I’m hoping to keep the money flowing this weekend. That said, it’s a playoff elimination race, so you should expect the unexpected.
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Top Chevrolet Car: Chase Elliott (+145)
This one is an easy pick. Elliott has been the class of the Chevrolet camp this year, and Elliott (+600) is the only Chevrolet driver of the top-six favorites. You have to go all the way down to Austin Dillon (+1800) to find another member of Team Chevy.
While Elliott has had an up-and-down 2020, he’s been fantastic at Bristol. He won the All-Star Race held back here in July, and he almost won the May race, too.
Almost. Elliott has been the best-finishing Chevrolet in nine of the 28 races so far this year, and he’s three for seven when racing at short tracks — and that doesn’t include his near-win at Bristol. Since Elliott is the only Chevy driver to consistently compete for wins, this is one of my favorite picks. Barring a wreck, only Austin Dillon (+500) or Kurt Busch (+500) threaten this line, and I don’t have much faith in their ability to do so.
Best Finish in Group: Clint Bowyer (+170)
DraftKings offers four-way head-to-head matchups for drivers, and Bowyer finds himself paired up with Erik Jones (+200), Alex Bowman (+300), and Aric Almirola (+350). While these drivers aren’t far from each other in the points standings, Bowyer should have much shorter odds given his short-track dominance.
Bowyer has the best average finish here over the last seven races (7.29). He hasn’t won here in that span, but he has two top-fives and six top-10s, and he has the sixth-best driver rating to boot.
Meanwhile, neither Bowman nor Almirola is a threat at Bristol. Bowman’s average finish over the last seven races here is just 17.6, and he hasn’t finished better than 15th since 2018. Likewise, Almirola sports a poor average finish through that same span (27.29), and he has one top-10 here since 2014.
Jones is the only challenge to this line, but he lacks Bowyer’s consistency. His three top-fives come with three finishes outside of the top-20, and Bowyer is five-for-seven against him here. At +170, this line is a screaming value for Saturday’s race.
Manufacturer of Winning Car: Ford (+130)
I’ve featured this line before, and it’s worth featuring again at Bristol. Ford has won 16 of the 28 races this year, good for a 57 percent margin. That includes five of seven races with the short-track package, good for 71 percent. Ford driver Brad Keselowski has dominated in the short-track package this year, as he won the May Bristol race along with New Hampshire and Richmond.
This line gives you exposure to some of the best picks to win this weekend. It includes half of the six favorites, Keselowski (+650), Kevin Harvick (+650), and Joey Logano (+900), and you also get win-or-be-eliminated longshots Ryan Blaney (+1400) and Matt DiBenedetto (+4000).
Although this weekend’s two favorites, Denny Hamlin (+500) and Kyle Busch (+550), drive Toyotas, this line offers better value than the Toyota line does at +175. Ford has won more than half of the races this year, yet this line is set in the plus money. Play it with confidence for Saturday night’s event.
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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.