Top 3 NBA Betting Picks for Monday, August 31st
The NBA playoffs are back! Sunday gave us some more exciting games that included a Toronto Raptors collapse and another classic duel between Jamal Murray and Donovan Mitchell. After a 3-0 Saturday, we went 2-1 yesterday, and we now sit at 24-8. We’ll hope to continue pushing toward 80 percent before the Conference Finals come to crush our percentages.
Here are my top NBA betting plays for August 31st, 2020. Odds courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook. You can also check out our daily NBA consensus game odds here.
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Heat +6.5 (-128)
I’m not entirely sure that the Miami Heat don’t just win Game 1 outright. Milwaukee looks more vulnerable than ever. They finished the Orlando series strong, but they were the only team in the East to not sweep their first-round opponent (despite playing the eighth seed), and they look like an inferior team without the services of Malcolm Brogdon (who left the team as a free agent last summer).
Miami won two of the three regular-season meetings between these two teams. It’s true that the regular season is often not a good indicator of playoff success, but it is noteworthy that Miami is the only Eastern Conference team that beat the Bucks twice this season. Although Milwaukee won the last game between these two by a score of 130-116, they had dropped the previous two by 16 and five points.
Jimmy Butler’s health is another key factor here, as the Heat’s star player played in just one matchup against Milwaukee this season — the 16 point blowout of the Bucks. Miami was always going to be trouble for Milwaukee due to Giannis’ need to get to the paint. This is an alternative spread line, as the actual spread for this at BetMGM is +5.5. For the extra juice, we get a much more favorable line with a higher win probability. This should be an extremely interesting series, but for Game 1, take the six-point cushion.
Bam Adebayo over 15.5 points (+100)
The juice is on the under for this prop for good reason — Adebayo averaged just 13 points per game against the Bucks during the regular season. However, what those numbers don’t tell you is that he played fewer than 23 minutes in his last outing against them due to foul trouble. He also did not have lead dog Jimmy Butler in two of those three contests.
Adebayo averaged 16.5 points per game against the Bucks in the contests in which he played over 23 minutes. He scored 19 early in the season before disappointing with a 14-point performance on .313 shooting. The boxscore positive there is that Bam hoisted up 13 shots in the game that Butler played. One more basket and he hits the over. While Bam Bam certainly disappears from the field more often than one would like, he was a .557 shooter and an All-Star this season. He should hit 16 or more points in at least half of the games this series, with the potential Game 1 upset of the Bucks topping the list.
Giannis Antetokounmpo under 31.5 points (-125)
29, 13, 33. One of these numbers does not belong, and now it’s time to play our game.
All jokes aside, these were the point totals for Giannis against the Heat this season. Giannis hit 32 points in just one game against Miami this year, and he averaged 25 points per game. What is notable, and I am sure you have picked up on it based on the props discussions above, is that Giannis scored just 13 points on .333 shooting (18 shots) when Jimmy Butler was in the lineup.
I love Giannis, but setting him two points above his season average (29.5) as a whole against a top defender on one of the better defensive teams in the NBA is peculiar. Yes, he averaged 30.6 points against Orlando, but he went under 31.5 in four of five contests. Take the under on this line and run.
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Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyContext.