Top 3 NBA Betting Picks for Monday, February 14th (2022)

With the NFL’s season finally over and the MLB’s season in jeopardy, sports bettors who have been averse to basketball in the past should start testing it out. If you just made a boatload betting on yesterday’s big game, I’ve identified a trio of smart NBA bets you can use to swell your winnings even further.

Here are my top NBA betting picks for Monday’s action.

Get a risk-free bet up to $500 at FanDuel Sportsbook >>

Written Picks YTD: 92-93-0 (+14.34u)
Model ATS Picks YTD: 102-85-3 (+7.82u)*
Model ML Picks YTD: 21-38 (+7.05u)*
*Follow me @is_sirois for the model’s picks.

1. Teaser: GSW -1.5 + SAC +4.5 | +103 at FD Sportsbook

I have a lot of faith in both the Warriors and Kings here, so let’s put a full unit on this teaser that doesn’t ask too much of either team. I’ll start with the Warriors, who I expect cover their standard spread (-5.5). They’ll face the Clippers, and Ty Lue’s team is on the first half of a back-to-back set. Los Angeles will travel to Phoenix for a date with Chris Paul in the Suns tomorrow night. As a result, an early lead for Golden State could force the coach’s hand and lead to him limit his starters’ minutes.

Speaking of Los Angeles’ starters, not many are healthy at the moment. Paul George and Norman Powell will miss tonight’s contest, and Luke Kennard is questionable with an ankle injury. Their recent three-for-two trade with the Trail Blazers has limited their depth; they’ll have either four or five guards available depending upon Kennard’s status, and that’s counting Terance Mann, who has spent 90% of his minutes at forward. Their lack of depth will cost them against a team like Golden State, especially because none of their players have proved capable of defending point guards: Los Angeles has allowed an NBA-high 32.6 points per game to the position over the last seven games.

Next, let’s turn to the Kings. Sacramento made some questionable moves at the trade deadline, but the short-term value of their roster increased by a healthy margin. Domantas Sabonis and De’Aaron Fox are probably not a serious one-two threat for a deep playoff run, but they’re good enough to play well against the shorthanded Brooklyn Nets. Steve Nash will have to engineer a rotation without Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, Ben Simmons, or Joe Harris. Nash gave Irving a whopping 41 minutes in Brooklyn’s most recent contest, and I’m not sure if anyone can fill in well enough for Brooklyn to edge the Kings by more than four.

2. Patty Mills Over 15.5 Points | -104 at FD Sportsbook

3. Patty Mills Over 1.5 Turnovers | +165 (.5u) at DK Sportsbook

So, what will head coach Steve Nash do without his Big Three? Let’s look at the numbers from James Harden’s four-game absence back in December. Nash had to operate without Harden and Irving for three of those games, and he also had to work without Durant in the fourth. Through those games, Mills averaged 38.5 minutes, 21.3 points, and 2.8 turnovers per game. All three of those numbers point to value on these totals tonight.

Let’s start with the points. Mills should get plenty of shots, both from beyond the arc and closer to the rim, against a fast-paced Sacramento Kings squad. They have allowed the third-most points per game to point guards this year (24.1). While it’s true that they’ve improved over their last seven games, as they’re now giving up fewer points per game (21.3) to the position, Mills should have little issue surpassing this relatively low number. The Australian scored at least 14 points in each of the aforementioned four games, and he only stayed under against the slow-paced Philadelphia 76ers. He even managed to score 14 points against the Kings with both Irving and Harden available!

Of course, we’re also going to target his turnovers, because the juice on this line is absolutely absurd. Mills finished with at least two turnovers in each of the aforementioned four games. While he only turned the ball over once against the Kings earlier this month, James Harden and Kyrie Irving combined for a whopping 10 turnovers as the Kings stole the ball eight times. Sacramento has forced point guards to turn the ball over 3.4 times per game this year, the association’s 11th-highest such number. They should get the ball from Mills at least twice here.

Join the BettingPros Discord Chat for Live Betting Advice >>

Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our Sports Betting 101 Section — including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners â€” or head to more advanced sports betting strategy — like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread â€” to learn more.

Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.