Top 3 NBA Betting Picks for Monday, February 28th (2022)
We’ve got a solid slate of NBA action on tap tonight, and as the playoffs approach, I encourage you to keep an eye toward team goals for this season. Betting on a rebuilding team to cover (or win) may not align with what their front office has in mind, and that can leave you with more of a stake in that team’s short-term success than the team itself.
Here are my top NBA betting picks for Monday’s action.
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Written Picks YTD: 95-99-0 (+10.61u)
Model ATS Picks YTD: 102-85-3 (+7.82u)*
Model ML Picks YTD: 21-38 (+7.05u)*
*Follow me @is_sirois for the model’s picks.
1. Cavaliers u108.5 | -115 at FD Sportsbook
The Cleveland Cavaliers will have to start Brandon Goodwin at point guard tonight. They’re without Darius Garland, Rajon Rondo, and Caris LeVert, so Goodwin will have a lot on his plate tonight. Cleveland has just one other guard, Isaac Okoro; they’ll probably have to rotate in forwards Cedi Osman, Dylan Windler, and Lamar Stevens at the one and two spots. That doesn’t bode well for Cleveland’s offensive production for a handful of reasons.
First, Goodwin isn’t a productive asset on offense. Although he has been playing well for a midseason signing, he has a negative offensive rating per FiveThirtyEight’s RAPTOR metric. Worse, Darius Garland and Caris LeVert boast two of Cleveland’s top four offensive scores, but they can’t do much from the sidelines.
Next, we’ve already seen the Cavaliers start Goodwin this season, and those games haven’t gone well. The Cavaliers scored 104 against the Rockets in his first start, 102 against the Hornets in his second, and 98 against the Pacers in his third. Goodwin also had to start against the Wizards on Saturday, and Cleveland tallied just 92 points in that showing. They scored an embarrassing 96.7 points per 100 possessions in the narrow win.
Their opponents, the Timberwolves are a fast-paced team, which is probably why the total for this one sits so high. But even a handful of extra possessions won’t be enough for Cleveland’s makeshift offense to surpass this mark.
2. Mason Plumlee o5.5 Points | -104 at FD Sportsbook
The Milwaukee Bucks have struggled against opposing centers lately. They have surrendered an NBA-high 35 points per game to the position, almost a full six points more than the next-worst Sacramento Kings. To illustrate their struggles, let’s turn to recent box scores: Andre Drummond scored 17 against them on Saturday, Joel Embiid had 42 on Feb. 17, Goga Bitadze had 12 on Feb. 15, Jusuf Nurkic had 23 on Feb. 14, and Deandre Ayton had 27 on Feb. 10.
The Hornets haven’t ever featured Mason Plumlee in a huge role, and it doesn’t look like they intend to so moving forward, either. The club acquired Montrezl Harrell at the trade deadline and continues to use P.J. Washington as a small-ball five. So why risk it on Plumlee? Well, first, he is the only traditional center on their roster. He stands 6-foot-11, which gives him several inches on Washington and Harrell. And although his usage can swing somewhat wildly from game to game, he remains firmly entrenched in Charlotte’s starting lineup.
Plumlee averages 6.7 points per game. He recorded four and six against the Bucks earlier this year, and his four-point showing came in a five-foul appearance. If Plumlee can keep the fouls to a minimum tonight, he should get enough run to go over this number versus Milwaukee’s defense.
3. Parlay: SAC ML + MIN ML | +146 at DK Sportsbook
We haven’t had much luck with our parlays and teasers lately, but yesterday’s missed by a single point. As a result, I’m going back to the well and am picking against a team with nothing to play for: Oklahoma City. Not only have the Thunder made it clear that their priorities lie in the future, but they will also have to play without multiple key assets tonight. Lu Dort, Josh Giddey, Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, and Mike Muscala will all sit this one out. Young reserves Kenrich Williams and Ty Jerome are also out. That will leave Oklahoma City shorthanded, and even though the Kings aren’t great, their front office still has some hope for this season. They need a win here if they want to make the play-in tournament, and I’m optimistic that they’ll get it done in Oklahoma City.
Next, we’ll target the Timberwolves against the Cavaliers for the reasons discussed above. Cleveland doesn’t have much depth at guard here, and that will cause them to struggle offensively. The relatively healthy Timberwolves should capitalize on this and take an easy win. They sit four games behind the Dallas Mavericks and Denver Nuggets for the fifth and sixth seeds, respectively, either one of which would keep Minnesota out of the play-in tournament. Look for them to fight for a guaranteed playoff berth instead of settling for a do-or-die showdown against a conference rival.
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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.