Top 3 NBA Betting Picks for Monday, November 22nd (2021)
Just when things were starting to settle down, drama returned to the NBA in full force yesterday. LeBron James got ejected for dishing out a vicious hit on Isaiah Stewart, and just about every person employed by the Detroit Pistons had to hold Stewart back. Their altercation drowned out the headlines from earlier in the day that the Kings were parting ways with head coach Luke Walton. Oh no!
Anyway, here are my top NBA betting picks for Monday’s action.
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Written Picks YTD: 35-28-0 (+14.17u)
Total Picks YTD: 51-56-0 (+14.16u)*
*Follow me @is_sirois for any other plays.
1. Harrison Barnes o15.5 Points | -118 at FD Sportsbook
The books are back to disrespecting our good friend HB. Sure, the Kings just fired Luke Walton. But coach firings can often be a good thing — the Hawks turned their season around after parting ways with Lloyd Pierce. They then turned around and beat the Miami Heat 94-80 behind a solid showing from their starters. With what Barnes has shown bettors thus far, it’s reasonable to expect him to come out extra motivated to carry this Kings team.
Barnes started the year averaging 26.8 points per game through his first four outings. He was lofting up 8.3 three-point shots per game, too. However, Luke Walton moved away from him as the season continued. Through his last four games, Barnes is only averaging 15 points and 2.5 attempted threes per game.
I’m not sure exactly how Alvin Gentry sees this roster moving forward, but it would behoove him to turn Barnes’ way as this team turns over a new leaf. That’s especially the case against the banged-up 76ers, as they have struggled against opposing frontcourts without Joel Embiid.
2. Bradley Beal o5.5 Assists | -102 at FD Sportsbook
We currently don’t have Montrezl Harrell or Daniel Gafford props, both of which make fantastic targets for the Wizards’ matchup against the Hornets. Charlotte surrenders the third-most points in the paint per game (48.3) and ranks as a bottom-six defense against opposing power forwards and centers. Once I see these lines posted, expect me to post about them on Twitter.
However, until we can get in on those sure-thing plays, Beal’s assist line has some value because of correlation. As one of Washington’s primary ball-handlers, Beal will likely end up dishing to those guys in the paint. He racked up seven dimes against the Hornets in their last meeting, too.
While Beal trails teammate Spencer Dinwiddie in assist percentage, the longtime Wizard is averaging slightly more assists per game. Dinwiddie failed to record an assist against Charlotte in their last meeting as well. Also, the Hornets give up the fifth-most total assists per game (25.5) and have permitted the eighth-most to shooting guards through their last seven games.
3. Dejounte Murray o7.5 Rebounds | -106 at FD Sportsbook
Murray ranks second on the Spurs in rebounds per game (8.1) and third in rebounding rate (12.5%). Those are excellent numbers from a point guard, but that’s only part of why we’re targeting this prop tonight.
The other reason? Chris Paul. Paul and the Suns permit opposing point guards to nab 7.49 rebounds per game. That number has jumped to 8.92 over their last seven outings, too. Phoenix’s starting guards, Paul and Devin Booker, have rebounding rates of 6.7% and 9.1%, respectively. Those aren’t awful numbers for guards, but they illustrate how much of a relative advantage Murray has on the glass.
Murray has finished with fewer than eight boards in just five of his 15 starts this year. This line should have been set one higher, so let’s take the value and run.
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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.