Top 3 NBA Betting Picks for Sunday, April 3 (2022)
Double-digit spreads abound on tonight’s betting card. With the regular season’s end rapidly approaching, teams like the Thunder and the Rockets have nothing left to play for, leading oddsmakers to put them in such massive holes. That eliminates the betting value that double-digit spreads usually offer. As a result, we’ll focus on some games the books expect to be closer.
Here are my top NBA betting picks for Sunday’s action.
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1. Pelicans 1Q ML | +100 at DK Sportsbook
The Los Angeles Clippers start games slower than their record indicates. The Clippers rank 18th in the NBA standings but 26th in first-quarter margin. Los Angeles loses their first quarters by an average margin of 1.9 points. They score the fourth fewest points per opening frame at just 25.7. The 20th-ranked Pelicans average a full extra point.
Paul George acknowledged as much after the Clippers came back from a huge deficit against the Utah Jazz. He joked that the team often starts games slowly but rallies after they “turn it on†after halftime. I expect the Clippers to lose this game, but even if they win, they’ll probably have to come out of a hole to do so.
The Pelicans come into this game at 7-3 through their last 10. The Clippers are 3-7 through that span. Los Angeles looks better with Paul George back in the lineup, but they don’t have the personnel necessary to beat the Pelicans tonight. New Orleans’ starting lineup features two centers and a power forward, which gives them a size advantage over most teams, but especially Los Angeles. The Clippers have only two players taller than 6-foot-8!
The Pelicans have beaten the Clippers three times this season, and they won each of those games by at least 13 points. They look even better with C.J. McCollum at point guard, and I expect them to get out to a good start against Los Angeles here.
2. PPD: Jonas Valanciunas 20+ Points/Pelicans to Win | +280 (.5u) at FD Sportsbook
With the Clippers at a size advantage, who better to target than Jonas Valanciunas? The big man has throttled the Clippers for 20-plus points twice already. He racked up 26 in their first meeting and 39 in the next. He only recorded 18 points in the last game between these teams, but that was a 24-point win the Pelicans didn’t him for late in the game. Paul George should keep this one closer—and keep Val in the game longer.
Valanciunas’ recent performances also point to so value here. He is averaging 20.4 points per game over his last 10 outings, and he scored no fewer than 17 points through that stretch. That’s a decent departure from his season average of 18.1 points per game. Unfortunately, he only surpassed the 20-mark in three of those games, but I’m optimistic that Los Angeles’ vulnerable interior defense will allow him to get over the hump.
We’re mostly targeting the Pelicans to win for the reasons I mapped out above, but game theory also helps our case here. The Clippers cannot improve their seeding. At 38-40, they find themselves sandwiched between a three-way race for the seventh seed between teams sitting at 44-34 or better and a three-way race for the ninth seed between teams sitting at 34-43 or worse. As a result, the Clippers don’t have much to play for tonight. In contrast, the New Orleans Pelicans find themselves in that race for the ninth seed, and a scenario exists where they could even get eliminated from the play-in. While that probably won’t happen, the Pelicans will probably want to make sure that they get a home play-in game, which gives them more to play for than Los Angeles.
3. Golden State Warriors Wire to Wire | +180 (.5u) at FD Sportsbook
We’re going back to the game theory well with this bet. At -215, the moneyline doesn’t feel like a great value. The five-point spread does, but I’d rather play this line for much better juice. The Warriors just shut Stephen Curry down for the remainder of the regular season, but they’re still fighting for the third seed—the Dallas Mavericks are just one game back. As a result, I expect them to put their best foot forward and grab what should be an easy win.
This is the last easy game for Golden State, too. They’ll face the Los Angeles Lakers, San Antonio Spurs, and New Orleans Pelicans over the last three games, and while none of those teams are especially great, they will still have to fight to keep their seasons alive. That could cause problems for Golden State given their razor-thin lead over the Mavericks.
The Sacramento Kings aren’t technically eliminated from the playoff race, but they aren’t trying to make a late push for the play-in. De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis seemingly have been shut down for the rest of the year, and Sacramento can’t do much without those two. Also, the last time the Kings faced a playoff-bound team, they gave up a 12-point advantage in the first quarter and never led. I expect a similar result tonight.
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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.