Top 3 NBA Betting Picks for Sunday, January 16th (2022)

With a limited slate of games scheduled in the NBA tonight, you’re going to have to do some research if you want to find value. Condensed betting markets like today’s give books plenty of time to perfect their lines. Fortunately, I’ve done some of the heavy lifting for you by digging up these three plays.

Here are my top NBA betting picks for Sunday’s action.

Get a risk-free bet up to $500 at FanDuel Sportsbook >>

Written Picks YTD: 71-74-0 (+9.9u)
Model ATS Picks YTD: 82-62-2 (+12.6u)*
Model ML Picks YTD: 18-27 (+11.1u)*
*Follow me @is_sirois for the model’s picks. 

1. Rudy Gobert o12.5 Rebounds | -112 at FD Sportsbook

It’s a bit risky to jump on Gobert’s rebounds in his first game back, but we’re going to do it anyway because this number is too low. Gobert averages 15.1 rebounds per game and leads the NBA in total boards (557). He has recorded at least 13 rebounds in 28 of his 37 starts this year.

Of course, Gobert will face the Denver Nuggets and Nikola Jokic tonight, and the Joker ranks second in total boards (501). However, Gobert went for 16 rebounds against Denver earlier this year. He has recorded at least 13 boards in four of his last seven meetings with the Nuggets, too. He also has the advantage on Jokic in rebound rate, 25.5% to 23.7%.

I’m also targeting this prop because both teams are missing key rebounders tonight. The Jazz won’t have backup center Hassan Whiteside, and reserve center Udoka Azubuike is questionable. Their absences may force Gobert to play some extra minutes.

Likewise, the Nuggets won’t have backup power forward JaMychal Green. He ranks fourth on the squad in rebound rate, so his absence will leave Aaron Gordon and Jeff Green on the floor for longer stretches. That’s good for Gobert — neither Gordon (9.9%) nor Green (6.9%) have strong rebound rates.

2. Kevon Looney o6.5 Points | +100 at FD Sportsbook

This line really shouldn’t be in the plus money with both Draymond Green and Stephen Curry out. The Warriors will have to get creative if they want to score points, and I suspect Kevon Looney will benefit from enough extra run to go over this number.

For starters, the Looney has scored a bit more with Green sidelined. Looney has averaged 7.3 points per game since Green’s ceremonial start against the Cavaliers. He went over this number twice in those four games, and he finished with no fewer than six. In fact, Looney has finished with no fewer than six points since December 20th — the problem is just that he finished with exactly six points in seven of those 11 games.

Fortunately, the Minnesota Timberwolves struggle against opposing bigs. They have permitted the fourth-most points per game to centers this year (24.7), and that number has ticked up over the last seven games (26.8). They have also allowed an NBA-high 59.3 points in the paint per game over their last three outings, which is good, because Looney isn’t going to score from anywhere else on the floor. Looney even racked up 11 points in Golden State’s previous matchup with Minnesota.

Let’s bite the hook and hope Looney gets some extra run for the shorthanded Warriors.

3. Jae’Sean Tate Double-Double | +550 (.25u) at FD Sportsbook

I love longshot bets. Tate, the starting power forward for the Houston Rockets, just got a double-double against the Sacramento Kings on Friday, and he’ll face them again tonight. It was his sixth of the year and the ninth of his short career. He racked up 17 points and 10 rebounds, but I’m also intrigued by his eight assists. He hasn’t gone for double-digit dimes this season, but two of his three double-doubles in 2021 were combinations of points and assists.

Tate averages 12.5 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 3.2 assists per game. But he should easily beat those numbers against a team like the Kings since they play at the NBA’s fourth-fastest pace. Those extra possessions are incredibly valuable on betting markets like this one. This isn’t a lock by any means, but it’s a fun bet with decent enough value for me to throw a quarter-unit on it.

Join the BettingPros Discord Chat for Live Betting Advice >>

Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our Sports Betting 101 Section — including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners â€” or head to more advanced sports betting strategy — like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread â€” to learn more.

Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.