Top 3 NBA Betting Picks for Thursday, September 3
If you’ve been betting on the higher seed to cover the spread so far in the NBA playoffs, you’ve done quite well for yourself – with one notable exception.
Seven of the eight teams with the higher playoff seeding have advanced past the first round, with those seven teams (L.A. Clippers, L.A. Lakers, Boston, Denver, Toronto, Milwaukee, Houston) having gone a combined 25-17-2 against the spread so far. The lone outlier? No. 5 Miami, which swept No. 4 Indiana and has a 2-0 series lead on the top-seeded Bucks while rolling to a perfect 6-0 ATS mark so far.
Here are my top NBA betting plays for Thursday (Odds courtesy FanDuel Sportsbook):
Check out our daily NBA consensus moneylines and point spreads here >>
Toronto-Boston Under 216.5 (-110)
Oddsmakers seem to think that the Raptors and Celtics are due for an offensive breakout in Game 3, keeping the game total in the mid-210s despite the first two games of the series finishing comfortably Under (the sides are averaging just 203.5 points per game so far). Neither side has given an inch defensively, and I expect that trend to continue Thursday in a game between the two teams with the best field-goal percentage defense in the playoffs.
Denver-LA Clippers Over 223 (-110)
It might be hard for bettors to ignore what happened in the Nuggets’ downright hideous 80-78 Game 7 win over Utah in Round 1, but that’s going to be an important exercise moving forward. Despite the ugliness of that game, the Nuggets still come into the second round with the best Over conversion record (5-2 O/U) so far in the postseason, while the Clippers aren’t far behind at 4-2. Both teams should let it fly in the opener, which should put the Over in play.
Kawhi Leonard Over 30.5 Points (-110)
There might be a temptation for bettors to shy away from the Over here and opt for the O23.5 on Paul George, who is far and away the Clippers’ No. 2 scoring option. But Playoff Kawhi is a sight to behold: he averaged 32.8 ppg in Round 1 despite shooting just over 30 percent from 3-point range. And while he was even worse during the regular season vs. the Nuggets, they’re allowing the third-highest conversion rate from deep in the postseason. I like Kawhi big-time here.
Check out our daily NBA consensus moneylines and point spreads here >>
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