Top 3 NBA Betting Picks for Tuesday, December 21st (2021)
With COVID-19 cases on the rise, the NBA has done its best to ensure that fans continue to get their daily dose of basketball. Tonightâs games donât look especially great for bettors, but Iâve done my best to find value in the available markets.
Here are my top NBA betting picks for Tuesdayâs action.
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Written Picks YTD: 56-57-0 (+10.1u)
Model ATS Picks YTD: 64-47-1 (+11.2u)*
Model ML Picks YTD: 7-8 (+5.5u)*
*Follow me @is_sirois for the modelâs picks.
1. Pacers 1Q ML | -114 at FD Sportsbook
The Indiana Pacers are doomed. At 13-18 and 13th in the Eastern Conference, one wonders how much longer itâll take their front office to blow this team up. That said, their guys have routinely come out and put on a show â at least in the first quarter. They led the Warriors after the first last Monday, and they are 4-1-1 in the first over their last six games.
Through this point in the season, the Pacers rank second in first-quarter margin (+3.0). Their opponents, the Miami Heat, rank sixth (+2.1), but they wonât have quite a few important players tonight. Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler will continue to miss time, as will P.J. Tucker, who has accounted for 13.7 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 4.0 assists per game (and a +/- of +6) since Butlerâs last outing.
The Heat will probably lose this game, and itâll start with a disappointing first quarter. We can get a bit more value than the full-game moneyline (-124) by playing this line instead. We also wonât have to worry about Indianaâs eighth-worst fourth-quarter margin (-1.2) in so doing.
2. Dewayne Dedmon o9.5 Points | -122 at FD Sportsbook
The above points aside, the Indiana Pacers struggle to defend the paint. They permit the fourth-most points in the paint per game (48.3), and they have allowed the second-most such points over the last three games (56). With Adebayo, Butler, and Tucker out, Dedmon has a clear lead on this roster in paint touches (4.5).
We donât have a ton of data to work with here, especially because the Heat wonât look like anything weâve seen this year. That said, Dedmon recorded seven points in just 22 minutes against the Pacers earlier this month. The big man has also gone for at least 10 points in his last five games, including a 20-point performance against the Bulls.
Itâs worth mentioning that the Pacers have managed to limit opposing centers to the third-fewest points per game this year (18.5). But that number is still high enough for Dedmon to cash this prop, especially because of the role heâll likely have to play for the Heat due to their depleted roster.
With Miamiâs options limited and Indianaâs weaknesses in the paint, look for Dedmon to notch his sixth-straight game with at least 10 points.
3. SGP: IND 1Q +0.5 + IND +1.5 + Dedmon o7.5 PTS | +220 (.5u) at DK Sportsbook
Letâs roll the above insights into a teased-down SGP for a full-unit profit. If the Pacers donât outright win the first quarter, theyâll at least keep things tied, and if they donât win tonightâs matchup, they should at least keep it very close. I donât love the idea of betting against a fourth-quarter implosion, but weâre teasing this spread enough for me to feel comfortable about it. Weâll combine that with a teased-down number Dedmon has hit in seven of his last 10 games and call it a day.
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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.