Top 3 NBA Betting Picks for Tuesday, February 15th (2022)
The trade deadline is in our rear-view mirror, and the All-Star Break looms. Let’s use this opportunity to pounce on some value before the playoff race swings into full gear. I’ve identified a trio of plays to target tonight, including two that sit in the plus money.
Here are my top NBA betting picks for Tuesday’s action.
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Written Picks YTD: 93-95-0 (+13.17u)
Model ATS Picks YTD: 102-85-3 (+7.82u)*
Model ML Picks YTD: 21-38 (+7.05u)*
*Follow me @is_sirois for the model’s picks.
1. Parlay: MIA ML + MEM ML + PHX ML | +166 at DK Sportsbook
Let’s break this play down into its parts. First, I expect the Heat to easily top the Mavericks here. I don’t believe the books have fully adjusted for how badly Dallas’ roster is constructed following the Kristaps Porzingis trade. We haven’t yet seen Spencer Dinwiddie take the floor for Dallas, but he hasn’t been having a great season thus far. He boasts a -0.5 overall RAPTOR grade, his worst such rating since he left the Pistons.
With Porzingis gone, the Mavericks will have to entrust their mediocre bigs with much larger roles. Of the four — Dorian Finney-Smith, Dwight Powell, Davis Bertans, and Maxi Kleber — none have a RAPTOR rating above +1.0, and the sum of their ratings sits at an atrocious -5.2. The Heat should take care of business against Luka Doncic and the painfully awful supporting cast that surrounds him. It’s worth noting that Jimmy Butler is questionable for tonight’s contest, but Miami has often found ways to win without their star forward this year.
We’ll also target Memphis against the New Orleans Pelicans here. Unlike the Mavericks, New Orleans managed to get better at the trade deadline, but they still aren’t that great. The Grizzlies are the better team: they have gone 40-18 this year and 8-2 in their last 10 games. Memphis has the rest advantage, too — the Pelicans just played last night, but the Grizzlies haven’t played since Saturday.
The Grizzlies have been very efficient lately, too. Over the last three games, they have outscored the Pelicans by 8.6 points per 100 possessions. They have also surrendered 7.6 fewer points per 100 possessions. Even though Ja Morant is questionable with an ankle injury, look for the Grizz to keep their hot streak alive with a win over the Pels.
Lastly, the Phoenix Suns are massive favorites against a depleted Clippers team playing on short rest. Los Angeles just doesn’t have the guard depth necessary to play well tonight — both Terance Mann and Reggie Jackson had to play 38-plus minutes because of the team’s banged-up backcourt.
2. Chris Paul o26.5 P+A | -115 (.75u) at FD Sportsbook
3. SGP: Chris Paul 15+ PTS + 1+ 3PT | +105 (.75u) at FD Sportsbook
Chris Paul has been unstoppable lately. The veteran point guard has 12 double-doubles in his last 14 games, including one triple double. He recorded 18.3 points, 13 assists, 5.1 rebounds, and 1.4 three-pointers through that stretch. Fortunately for us, he finds himself in a perfect spot to continue producing at an absurd rate. Paul and the Suns will face a Los Angeles Clippers squad that’s playing on the wrong end of a back-to-back and has struggled against opposing point guards.
The Clippers just haven’t been able to stop opposing ones. Through their last 15 games, point guards have scored 27.2 points and nailed 3.8 made threes per game against Los Angeles. Both of those numbers are bottom two in the NBA, but things have only gotten worse since then. Through the last seven games, point guards have racked up 34.9 points per game against the Clippers, the most by a 7.2-point margin! Point guards have also hit 4.2 three-pointers per game, the second highest such number through that span.
Chris Paul is a hard player to handicap because of how often he passes. As a result, we’ll split 1.5 units on two plays with some correlative value to get exposure to the three props I like — assists, points, and three-pointers — without overcommitting to any one of those markets. Paul’s unteased points total sits at 15.5, so we’ll spit out the hook and pair it with a single made three to get us back into the plus money. Why? Paul has scored 16 or more points just 24 times in 56 games, but he has scored 15 exactly six times, which moves us from a 42.9% hit rate to 53.6%. Also, Paul hit at least one three-pointer in all but three of his games with at least 15 points. He hit a pair of triples in his last outing against the Clippers, too.
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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.