Top 3 NBA Betting Picks for Tuesday, January 25th (2022)
With a busy slate on tap this evening, most fans (and bettors) may turn their attention to the big-name battle between the Los Angeles Lakers and the Brooklyn Nets. With Anthony Davis due to make his return, the Lakers must turn things around quickly to save their season. It’ll be a fun game to watch, but you’re better off looking elsewhere for betting value.
Here are my top NBA betting picks for Tuesday’s action.
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Written Picks YTD: 78-81-0 (+9.62u)
Model ATS Picks YTD: 92-73-2 (+11.6u)*
Model ML Picks YTD: 19-31 (+9.4u)*
*Follow me @is_sirois for the model’s picks.
1. Kristaps Porzingis o7.5 Rebounds | -110 at FD Sportsbook
No NBA team is doing a worse job against opposing centers on the glass right now than the Golden State Warriors. The Dubs have allowed opposing fives to rack up 19.1 rebounds per game over their last seven outings, all of which they’ve played without Draymond Green. So even though Porzingis isn’t the best rebounder, we’re still looking his way regardless.
Porzingis owns a 14.5% rebound rate, which is shockingly low for a 7-foot-3 behemoth like himself. Still, he spends 59% of his minutes at the five, and the Mavericks may opt to leave him there against a smaller Warriors team. Golden State’s starting center, Kevon Looney, has a four-inch disadvantage against Porzingis. His team-leading rebound rate (18.9%) is solid, but he has a tendency to disappear against bigger fives. For instance, he totaled just six rebounds and recorded a rebound rate of 11.5% against Rudy Gobert on Sunday.
But this isn’t purely a matchup-based play. Porzingis is averaging exactly eight rebounds per game this year, so he only needs an average night to cash this prop.
2. Jae’Sean Tate o12.5 Points | -118 at FD Sportsbook
It’s easy to forget about Tate behind the higher-volume guys in Houston like Christian Wood and Jalen Green. But that’s a mistake. Tate averages exactly 12.5 points per game and finds himself in a plus matchup tonight against the Spurs.
San Antonio has struggled mightily to defend the paint this year. They have allowed opponents to score 50 points in the paint per game, the third-highest figure in the NBA. Worse, they have permitted 57.3 such points in their last three outings. Only the Indiana Pacers have been worse through that span.
Meanwhile, Tate takes most of his shots from the paint. A look at his shot chart reveals that Tate takes smart looks and averages roughly 8.8 shots in the paint per game. He gets these looks not only via pure paint touches, of which he averages 3.6 per game (third-most on the Rockets), but also through drives, which he averages six of per game (fourth most). Houston’s starting power forward scored exactly 13 agains San Antonio the last time he played them, and I expect a similar showing from him tonight.
3. Parlay: MIN ML + DEN ML + PHI ML | +158 at DK Sportsbook
This parlay feels like stealing. Sure, there’s always the chance of an upset, but we have a number of factors working in our favor here. Let’s start with Minnesota. They’re on an 8-2 tear and have been amazing with their current starting five on the floor. How amazing? Well, they boast a +30.7 net rating over the 204 minutes that those five have played together. They’ll face a banged-up Portland Trail Blazers team that has some momentum, but not enough to win this game. They couldn’t beat Minnesota with Damian Lillard at home earlier this year, and I doubt they’ll be able to pull it off without him.
Next, we’ll target the Nuggets against the Pistons. Detroit should be closer to double-digit underdogs tonight, but they aren’t for whatever reason. Perhaps the books are worried about Denver holding back before they travel to Brooklyn tomorrow. That’s fair, but it shouldn’t keep Denver from getting an easy win. The Pistons score just 99.4 baskets per 100 possessions (second worst) and allow 108.8 (seventh worst). Meanwhile, Denver scores 108.1 (ninth best) and allows 107 (13th worst). Denver has already topped Detroit this season and last lost to them when Andre Drummond and Reggie Jackson combined for 41 points and 20 rebounds.
Lastly, we’ll throw Philadelphia into our three-leg parlay for their game against the lowly Pelicans. New Orleans is on the wrong end of a back-to-back, and they had to exert themselves to earn a comeback win over the Pacers. Three of their starters and one of their bench players had to log 34-plus minutes, too. New Orleans has also ruled out Devonte’ Graham and Jonas Valanciunas, and they have gone 0-4 when playing with rest disadvantage. Meanwhile, the 76ers haven’t played since Sunday.
We’ll put a full unit on this one because I’m not sure how it loses.
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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.