Top 3 NBA Betting Picks for Tuesday, March 15th (2022)
Following yesterday’s 2-1 showing, we’re up to 5-2 and +4.04u over the last two days. We’re even up +6.32u over the last two weeks! I’m looking to keep this momentum rolling down the stretch as we head into the NBA playoffs.
Here are my top NBA betting picks for Tuesday’s action.
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1. Kyle Lowry Under 1.5 Made Threes | +106 at FD Sportsbook
Kyle Lowry has not looked good recently, and this matchup against Detroit isn’t a good one for him to get warmed back up from long range. Since returning from a four-game absence, Lowry has shot 23.5% from beyond the arc on 4.3 attempts per game. That’s good for just a single made three-pointer per game. Lowry has averaged only 5.5 points per game, too. He has gone over this total just once since his return, and he needed eight attempts to do so, too.
This just isn’t a great matchup for Lowry. The Detroit Pistons have swarmed the perimeter lately. They have allowed opposing teams to make only 6.3 triples on 25.7 attempts per game over their last three contests. Both mark NBA lows. They rank third best in opposing three-point percentage to boot.
Detroit’s improved perimeter defense correlates with a pair of other trends. One, the Pistons have limited opposing point guards to the sixth fewest made threes per game (2.1) over the last seven games. Two, the Pistons have allowed the second-most points in the paint per game (58.7) through that span. That suggests Lowry will just opt for the path of least resistance and either pass or take easy twos instead of shooting from long distance.
2. Jimmy Butler Over 20.5 Points | -118 at FD Sportsbook
As I mentioned above, the Detroit Pistons cannot defend the paint right now. Their decision to prioritize the perimeter has helped keep them in close games, as they have gone 9-0-2 ATS over their last 11, but it does mean that Jimmy Butler should have a big game. Butler averages 13.9 drives and 5.3 paint touches per game. He leads Miami in the former metric and ranks second in the latter.
Butler returns to the starting lineup after missing Sunday’s win over the Cleveland Cavaliers, so he should be fresh. The Heat have held Butler out of half their last six games as they prepare for a postseason push, but it hasn’t reduced Butler’s output at all. The veteran scored 22 points per game in his last three starts and finished with no fewer than 21. We’ve seen Butler exceed this total in 26 of his 47 appearances this year, good for a 55.3% hit rate, marginally better than the implied odds we’re getting at FanDuel (54.1%).
With Miami likely to opt for easy interior makes tonight, Butler should benefit significantly and soar over this number.
3. SGP: Butler 20+ PTS + Lowry 6+ AST + u1.5 3PT + MIA ML | + 416 (.25u) at FD Sportsbook
Let’s roll the above insight into a same-game parlay. We’ll tease down Butler’s point total by one for a bit of extra security while throwing in two extra plays. The first, a teased-down total for Lowry’s assists, speaks to his recent shooting struggles. Lowry averages 7.9 assists per game, and that hasn’t fallen off like his shooting — the point guard has averaged 8.0 assists per game since his return to the lineup. In three games against the Pistons this year, Lowry has finished with assist totals of eight, ten, and six. Next, we’ll back the Heat to win. They are 2-1 against the Pistons this year and should take the season series against a team with little to play for. The Pistons have shown a lot of fight recently, and I do expect them to cover, but Erik Spoelstra won’t let this one get away.
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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.