Top 3 NBA Betting Picks for Tuesday, November 23rd (2021)
After a busy Monday, we’ve got just four games on tonight’s NBA card. Unfortunately, the day’s nationally televised matchups, Lakers at Knicks and Nuggets at Trail Blazers, could get played without multiple star players. LeBron James will serve a one-game suspension, and both Anthony Davis and Nikola Jokic are questionable. Let’s look elsewhere for betting value, shall we?
Here are my top NBA betting picks for Tuesday’s action.
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Written Picks YTD: 37-29-0 (+15.09u)
Total Picks YTD: 53-57-0 (+15.08u)*
*Follow me @is_sirois for any other plays.
1. Cade Cunningham o2.5 Made Threes | +140 (.75u) at FD Sportsbook
We’re taking aim at a plus-money prop to start today’s article. We don’t even need to wager close to a full unit on this to make one back! Cunningham has nailed at least three three-pointers in four of his NBA games thus far, and he is getting more efficient from deep. All four of those three-made three performances (what a mouthful) came in his last eight outings, and his average made threes per game through that span sits right at 2.5.
Three-point props hinge on overall shot attempts, and they have been there for Cunningham. He has taken 7.8 three-point shots per game through his last eight and 7.5 on the year. He has finished with at least eight attempts in seven of his 11 starts, including his last five in a row.
The Miami Heat are the perfect team to play this prop against. Bam Adebayo pretty much shuts down the paint, so opposing offenses know they have to shoot from the perimeter. That’s why Miami gives up the fifth-most made threes per game despite playing at a below-average pace. They’ve also been at their worst against opposing shooting guards and small forwards — through their last seven games, they rank sixth-worst against opposing twos and fourth-worst against opposing threes from beyond the arc.
Also, the Pistons find themselves pressed for depth with Isaiah Stewart suspended and Kelly Olynyk out. Jerami Grant, their starting forward, may have to slide over to the five spot (where he has spent 6% of his minutes this year). Likewise, Saddiq Bey, their starting three, may slide over to the four (where he has spent 13% of his minutes). That should leave Cunningham to get some extra minutes at the three spot (where he has spent 18% of his minutes), but he’ll be fine even if the Pistons leave him at the two. This trend is especially notable because the Heat limit opposing fours and fives to a below-average share of made threes, and Bey and Grant are the only other Pistons who have made at least as many threes per game as Cunningham (1.9).
2. Ivica Zubac o9.5 Points | -115 at DK Sportsbook
Zubac has gone for at least this many points in 11 of his 17 starts this season, including a 16-point showing against the Mavericks on Sunday. Some books have this at 10.5, so we’re catching DraftKings sleeping here.
The logic for this play is simple. Kristaps Porzingis and the Dallas Mavericks are not good in the paint. They have allowed the eighth-most points in the paint per game (46.9) and the second-most points to centers (26.5). That trend extends to their last seven games, too, as they have allowed opposing fives to score an NBA-high 29.29 points per game.
That said, this prop does have something cutting against it. The Clippers expect Marcus Morris back tonight, and he makes a great small-ball four or five in Ty Lue’s offense. However, with Nicolas Batum still in the health and safety protocols, Lue will have to leave Zubac in the game even if he doesn’t want to.
3. Saddiq Bey o5.5 Rebounds | -115 at PointsBet
With Olynyk and Stewart sidelined, someone will have to clean the glass for the Pistons. The books have given Cunningham the highest rebound total (6.5) for this game, but Bey could easily lead the team in boards tonight. He has gone for at least six rebounds in 10 of his 16 games this year, and that was with those two bigs in the lineup!
Although Cunningham leads the Pistons’ remaining players in rebound rate (11.1%), Bey slots in right behind him (10.9%). Bey even has the advantage in minutes per game over Cunningham (32.9 to 31.6), so he should be on the floor long enough to cash this prop.
Isaiah’s NBA Betting Model Picks
Model Picks YTD: 5-2 (+2.55u)
NOTE: Anthony Davis’ questionable tag moves the Lakers down to a PASS.
My NBA betting model assigns a team one of five labels: LOCK, LEAN, EDGE, PASS, or AVOID. It uses efficiency data and PACE factor (weighted for recent play) (ES), betting trends (TF), win share rates for active players (PS), and scheduling (SC) to evaluate how much edge (#V) a given team has against the current spread (SPRD). Generally, I bet 1.5u on LOCKS, 1u on LEANS, and 0.5u on EDGES. Because of how much late-breaking news happens in the NBA, keep an eye on my Twitter for updates on how those headlines affect the model’s picks.
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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.