Top 3 NBA Odds, Picks & Predictions: Sunday (2/2)
There's a solid slate of games in the NBA on Sunday. With five games on the schedule, there are plenty of sides and totals with value. Here are a few of my favorite plays for Sunday.
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Sunday's Best NBA Picks
(Odds Courtesy FanDuel Sportsbook)
Chicago Bulls at Detroit Pistons
This will be the second matchup of the season between these longtime Central Division foes. Chicago took the first game 122-112 back in mid-November. The Bulls will be without Zach Lavine, who is missing his third consecutive game. He was a key piece in the win back in November with 25 points, six rebounds and five assists. Additionally, Detroit is expected to welcome back Isaiah Stewart from suspension after missing Friday's game.
Nikola Vucevic went off last time these two met. His 29 points led all scorers and although Jalen Duren was able to pull down 22 rebounds he wasn't able to slow Vucevic down. Since November, Stewart has emerged as a strong defensive post presence off the bench by becoming an elite shot blocker with a 96th-percentile block rate. These two should be able to contain Vucevic, so Chicago will need to take advantage of Detroit's poor three-point defense. Detroit has given up over 37% from deep this season, but the Bulls will be without their most efficient three-point shooter in LaVine.
Detroit, in their own right, hasn't been a strong offensive team that's proven they can attack a poor Chicago defense. Without LaVine, Chicago won't be able to exploit Detroit’s defense like they did in November. This is a game where the total is set too high and we should play the under.
Pick: Total Under 234.5 Points (-110)
Boston Celtics at Philadelphia 76ers
The 76ers are perhaps starting to look like they've turned a corner in recent weeks. After an abysmal 15-27 straight up (SU) and 13-27-2 against the spread (ATS) record to start the season, they've rallied off a 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS stretch. The offense has led the way for Philadelphia as they've scored 122 points per game (PPG) in this five-game stretch. Is this a sign of things to come for the 76ers or just an aberration?
The advanced stats still show the 76ers as a below-average offensive team. They don't shoot the ball particularly well, ranking 22nd in effective field goal percentage (eFG%) - 52.9%. They also don't rebound those misses either with a 24th-ranked offensive rebound rate. Defensively, Boston is a bad matchup for the 76ers. They rank in the top 10 in both eFG% and defensive rebound rate. They should force plenty of misses while not allowing second-chance attempts.
Philadelphia is playing some of their best basketball of the season. They should hit a speed bump on Sunday against an underachieving Boston team, per the betting markets with a 19-28-2 ATS record. I expect the Celtics to avenge their Christmas Day loss to the 76ers, and then some. Boston is the much better team and should blow out a hot 76ers team.
Pick: Celtics -10.5 (-110)
Memphis Grizzlies at Milwaukee Bucks
Another nationally televised game on Sunday pits the Grizzlies and Bucks. Memphis has listed Ja Morant as doubtful for this matchup and the Bucks have opened as small favorites. These two teams met back on Halloween as the Grizzlies won 122-99. At full strength, Memphis is the better team. Even with Morant likely sidelined, Memphis might still be the better team.
Memphis is 13-7 so far this season without Morant in the lineup with a +165 point differential in those 20 games. The Grizzlies have shown time and time again they are capable of winning even with Morant out of the lineup. The big men down low have made Memphis an incredibly formidable defensive team. They allow just 61.9% shooting at the rim - good enough for seventh-best in the league. They're an even better mid-range defense. This presence should be able to slow Giannis Antetokounmpo, the offensive catalyst for Milwaukee.
Milwaukee has not yet shown this season that they should be favorites against any top-10 team. Against the top nine teams in the league in terms of record, a group Memphis resides, Milwaukee is just 2-10 SU and 3-9 ATS. This includes the NBA Cup Championship game against Oklahoma City they won and covered. Until Milwaukee proves they can be trusted in these spots, they are a must fade. I like Memphis, even short-handed, to cover this primetime matchup.
Pick: Grizzlies +4.5 (-110)