Top 3 NBA Odds, Picks & Predictions: Thursday (5/9)
The National Basketball Association has two second-round playoff games scheduled for Thursday evening. The Cleveland Cavaliers and Boston Celtics lock horns at TD Garden for Game 2 of their series at 7 p.m., and the game can be viewed or streamed in the first part of a doubleheader on ESPN. The Dallas Mavericks and Oklahoma City Thunder battle in Game 2 later in the night, with a tip time of approximately 9:30 p.m. ET.
Let’s continue to build that bankroll for the rest of the NBA playoffs with our best bets for May 9.
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Thursday’s Best NBA Bets
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook | All wagers are for 1 unit
Cleveland Cavaliers (+660) @ Boston Celtics (-1000) | O/U 212.5 (-110/-110)
The Cavaliers have been the biggest Jekyll and Hyde teams in this postseason. Cleveland has won all four games on its home court, while getting mostly annihilated in four games on the road.
The Cavs not only lost all three games on the road in the Orlando Magic series, but they suffered a 38-point setback in Game 3 at the Kia Center, which was the largest margin of defeat in a playoff game in franchise history. Cleveland followed that 121-83 debacle up with a 112-89 setback in Game 4. It was a little better in Game 6, falling ‘only’ 103-96, but it was up to its old tricks in Game 1 of this series, as Cleveland was paddled 120-95 in Game 1.
If you’re trying to do the math, that’s an average margin of defeat of 23.3 points per game (PPG) in four road games, and that includes the seven-point loss in Game 6 of the Orlando series. That’s historically bad, yet here Cleveland is with a chance to still gain a road split if it can do the unthinkable, and seize home-court advantage.
The Cavs are not showing any signs of springing that upset, however, and Cleveland is 0-4 against the spread (ATS) on the road in four playoff games, while going 1-5 ATS in the past six overall. The road woes spill into the regular season, too, with Cleveland losing 11 of the past 12 on the road since a 108-103 upset as a seven-point underdog at Indiana on March 18. The one time in the 12-game span Cleveland won came at Utah in a game it was heavily favored on April 2.
Boston isn’t infallible. Remember, this team lost in Game 2 against the Miami Heat as a 14-point favorite after a 20-point emasculation of the Heat in Game 1 of that series. The C’s buttoned things up after that, winning and covering three in a row.
Could we see the same story unfold in this series? It’s unlikely. The Cavs have been hot garbage on the road for a while, and against playoff teams, they’ve been outclassed. It’s a big number, but back the C’s laying the points. In addition, Cleveland has allowed 120 or more points in two of the four playoff games, and the Over is 3-1 in it past four outings. Go high on the total for a nice Same-Game Parlay (SGP) opportunity.
Bet: Celtics -13.5 (-112) & Over 212.5 (-110)
Dallas Mavericks (+168) @ Oklahoma City Thunder (-200) | O/U 218 (-108/-112)
The Mavericks and Thunder were tied 23-23 after the first quarter of Game 1, and things were still quite manageable for Dallas heading into the second half, down just nine at the break. But the Mavs saw the Thunder pull away in the final quarter en route to a 117-95 win, and a 1-0 series lead as the Under (217.5) shockingly came through.
The Mavs did their part to keep scores low, hitting just 39% (33-of-84) from the floor, and 34% (12-of-35) from behind the 3-point line. They even struggled at the free-throw line, connecting at just 68% (17-of-25), leading several points on the floor. The Mavs turned it over 15 times, and Dallas was outrebounded by a 52-to-39 margin.
OKC didn’t burn the nets up, hitting 45% (40-of-89), but it was especially lethal from behind the 3-point line, going 46% (16-of-35) from downtown. Shea Gilgeous-Alexander was good for 29 points, nine assists and eight rebounds, as he flirted with a triple-double, while Chet Holmgren had 19 points and seven rebounds with three blocked shots and two 3-pointers. Remember, what a pro wants, what a pro needs… OK, sorry to get that AWFUL earwig commercial in your head – lol
OKC has won all five games in the postseason, while covering four in a row. Dallas is 2-2 SU/ATS in four postseason games on the road, and it has lost three in a row at Oklahoma City, while failing to cover the past two.
The Under is 4-1, including going low in the past three for the Thunder. Dallas has limited the opposition to 117 or fewer points every time out, while scoring 111 or fewer points in five of seven postseason games. Definitely take OKC laying the little bit of points, and go low, if you want another SGP opportunity, although conviction is not high on the total.
Bet: Thunder -5 (-110)
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Daniel E. Dobish is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Daniel, check out his archive and follow him @danieledobish.