Top 3 NBA Picks & Predictions: Wednesday (11/11)
10 NBA games are being played tonight, including two that will air on ESPN. The first of those two nationally televised games pits the Cavaliers against the Knicks. Below, I explain why the Cavaliers are going to struggle against their conference rival again. Then, I explain why the Spurs are in for a solid performance against the Bulls, before diving into the second nationally televised game of the night between the Warriors and Rockets.
Here are the best NBA bets for Wednesday, November 11.
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Wednesday’s Best NBA Picks & Predictions
(Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook)
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. New York Knicks
Until oddsmakers catch up to just how good the Knicks' defense is, I'm going to keep taking their opponent to hit their Under. After holding the Bucks to just 85 points last night, the Knicks have now held four of their last five opponents under 100 points. The only team to top 100 during that span was the Bulls, who scored just 105.
When the Cavaliers and Knicks played in Cleveland on Saturday, the Cavaliers scored just 97 points. They shot just 43% from the field and 32% from the 3-point line. The Knicks limited the Cavaliers to just 82 field goal attempts. That's very impressive, considering the Cavaliers are averaging 89.2 field goal attempts per game.
While the Cavaliers have scored at least 111 points in nine of their last 10 games, this is still an offense that is being built up by one really impressive win over the 76ers. The Cavaliers are reliant on 3-pointers, averaging the sixth-most per game. The problem for them is that the Knicks are holding opponents to 29.5% from 3-point range over their last three games.
Pick: Cavaliers Under 108.5 Points (-110)
San Antonio Spurs vs. Chicago Bulls
The Spurs have scored more than 127.5 points just once this season. The fact that I'm taking this Over speaks to how bad the Bulls’ defense really is. The Bulls are allowing 129.3 points per game. They've given up at least 124 in every single game this season, allowing at least 130 four times.
While the Spurs are only averaging 118.7 points per game, they've scored at least 122 in three consecutive games. They rank third in the league in offensive efficiency, and they're shooting 48.1% over their last three games.
The Bulls are allowing teams to shoot 48.5% from the field and 39.5% from 3-point range against them. That 3-point percentage is the second-highest average in the league. Maybe the Spurs build such a massive lead that they take their foot off the gas late. But with how bad the Bulls have been this season, the Spurs enter with a floor that is just 3.5 points below this total.
Pick: Spurs Over 127.5 (-110)
Golden State Warriors vs. Houston Rockets
The Warriors have scored at least 116 points in eight of their last nine games, reaching at least 120 in four of their last. Led by Steph Curry and Yaxel Lendeborg, the Warriors are the best 3-point shooting team in the league, averaging 40.3% from deep. Though the Warriors are averaging just 103.4 possessions per game, 40.8 of their 86.4 field goal attempts per game are from beyond the arc. With how well they shoot from deep, they're always a threat to score a lot, which is proven by their second-best offensive efficiency ranking.
The Rockets are allowing opponents to make just 31.3% of their 3-point attempts this season. They've also held four of their last five opponents to 102 or fewer points. But this is still a defense that allowed at least 110 points in four consecutive games to start the season. Three of those games were against teams that rank in the top five in points per game.
The Warriors are allowing 111.2 points per game, and I expect that average to increase against an offense averaging 115.5 points per game. The Rockets have scored more than 110 points just once in their last five games, but the final total reached 224 once during that span.
Pick: Over 222.5 Total Points (-110)
Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.