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Top 3 NFL Player Prop Bet Odds & Picks: Super Bowl (2024)

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Another successful NFL season is wrapping up as we prepare for Super Bowl LVIII.

It’s been a wild year, but with one game remaining, we have two of the teams that we thought would be here when this season started that remain. The 49ers probably had the best roster in the NFL this season. Now, only time will tell if they can finally break through for a Super Bowl win under Kyle Shanahan. Meanwhile, Patrick Mahomes is looking for his third Super Bowl win as he continues on his journey to catch Tom Brady.

Let’s take a look at our top player prop bets for Super Bowl LVII.

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Best NFL Super Bowl LVIII Player Prop Bets

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Patrick Mahomes Under 25.5 Rushing Yards (-105)

I’m locking in this bet again, with nearly the exact same number as Mahomes had against the Ravens a couple of weeks ago. The analysis here is also similar to the Ravens game. Both teams have fast, rangy linebackers that can contain Mahomes’ scrambling ability. Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw will have the task of keeping Mahomes’ playmaking ability on third downs to a minimum. What’s different here is the back end of the defense. The 49ers’ secondary is not as well-rounded as Baltimore’s unit, which might actually help this prop. I think Mahomes can pick apart this secondary through the air, which may limit his need to run the ball throughout this game.

Opposing QBs have only cleared this number four times against this 49ers defense this season, and two of them were Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray. Which brings us to our next prop…

Patrick Mahomes Over 261.5 Passing Yards (-115)

This 49ers defense had a brutal first half against the Lions in the NFC Championship, as they found themselves in a 24-7 deficit at halftime before an inspiring comeback. The Lions’ run game is what gave them a commanding first-half lead, and it’s puzzling how they somehow got away from the run game a bit in the second half. While I love Isiah Pacheco, I’d be surprised to see the Chiefs hit 150+ rushing yards in this game. That tells me that this will be a Patrick Mahomes 300+ yards game as they lean on “their guy” in the biggest game.

And if the Chiefs fall behind in this game? Andy Reid may unleash the passing game and go down firing. Look for Mahomes to step up in a big way, as he can have his way with this secondary.

Deebo Samuel 25+ Rushing Yards  (+195)

I’m going out on a limb a bit here with this one, but I really like what Deebo Samuel offers in the run game in this matchup. We know the Chiefs have great cornerbacks in L’Jarius Sneed and Trent McDuffie, so I’m looking for Kyle Shanahan to get a little creative, as he does so well. While he led the team in receiving against the Lions, this Chiefs defense is a completely different matchup. I believe Shanahan will utilize the run game with Christian McCaffrey and Samuel early on to open things up with play-action to George Kittle and company. I have Samuel breaking a nice 15-yard+ gain early on as he clears this total on the ground.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Saturday: