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Top 3 Super Bowl LVIII Bets to Fade: 49ers vs. Chiefs (2024)

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Everyone loves betting on the Super Bowl, however, knowing which bets to make is critical. It’s also important to know which bets you should avoid making.

Today, I have three bets you should avoid making for the Super Bowl LVIII matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and the Kansas City Chiefs. I also have three bets in this game that you should make instead. Let’s dive into it!

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Super Bowl LVIII Bets to Fade

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Avoid Betting Deebo Samuel Over 56.5 Receiving Yards (-125)

  • Samuel had 89 receiving yards in the NFC title game. However, he faced an awful Detroit Lions pass defense.
  • The star receiver averaged only 59.5 yards per game during the regular season, totaling 55 or fewer in 60% of the contests.
  • He averaged 35.4 yards per game over the previous five contests before the matchup against the Lions, totaling 48 or fewer in every game.
  • Cornerback L’Jarius Snead could shadow Samuel. The Chiefs have shut down No. 1 wide receivers all year, including holding Stefon Diggs to only 21 receiving yards earlier in the playoffs.

Instead, Bet Christian McCaffrey Over 89.5 Rushing Yards (-125)

  • The superstar led the NFL in rushing yards during the regular season (1,459), averaging a career-high 91.2 yards per game.
  • McCaffrey had at least 93 yards in 60% of the regular season games he finished, totaling 100 or more in all but two of those nine contests.
  • Despite coming off a calf injury to end the regular season, McCaffrey has totaled at least 90 yards in both playoff games while facing some tough run defenses.
  • Kansas City surrendered 86.9 yards per game to running backs during the regular season, including 104 or more in over a third of the matchups.

Avoid Betting Patrick Mahomes Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+124)

  • Mahomes has four passing touchdowns in three games during the playoffs, totaling only one in two contests.
  • However, he faced an elite Baltimore Ravens defense and played in the freezing cold in those two games. Meanwhile, Mahomes had two passing touchdowns against the Buffalo Bills.
  • He averaged 1.7 touchdowns per game during the regular season, totaling two or more in over half of the matchups.
  • The superstar plays at his best in the playoffs, averaging 2.3 touchdowns per game in his postseason career. Mahomes had at least two touchdowns in two of three Super Bowl matchups, including the one against the 49ers in 2020.

Instead, Bet Isiah Pacheco Over 67.5 Rushing Yards (-125)

  • Pacheco averaged 66.8 rushing yards per game during the regular season, totaling 110 or more in nearly a quarter of the contests.
  • However, he steps it up in the playoffs. After averaging 65.7 yards per game last postseason, Pacheco has averaged 84.7 yards per game this year, totaling 68 or more in every matchup.
  • The 49ers held running backs to only 1,097 yards during the regular season, the second-fewest in the NFL. However, they’ve struggled during the playoffs.
  • San Francisco gave up 108 yards to Aaron Jones in their first playoff matchup and 93 to David Montgomery in the NFC title game.

Avoid Betting a Tight End to Win Super Bowl MVP (+900)

  • This year’s Super Bowl features arguably the top two tight ends in the NFL – Travis Kelce and George Kittle. However, a tight end has never won Super Bowl MVP.
  • There have been 58 Super Bowl MVP award winners, with quarterbacks winning 32 times (55.2%), including 12 of the past 17.
  • A tight end would likely need a massive performance and a high interception game from the winning quarterback to secure the MVP award.
  • Instead of betting on a tight end to win Super Bowl MVP, consider a running back (+380). Christian McCaffrey and Isiah Pacheco can have big performances if the quarterbacks struggle.

Instead, Bet Travis Kelce Over 70.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

  • While he likely won’t win the MVP award, Kelce should have a massive performance in the Super Bowl.
  • He averaged 65.6 receiving yards per game during the regular season, his lowest total since Patrick Mahomes took over as the starter. However, Kelce has been better in the playoffs.
  • The superstar has averaged 89.2 yards per game in 17 career playoff contests with Mahomes. He has had at least 71 yards in 12 consecutive playoff matchups.
  • San Francisco surrendered 67.5 yards per game to tight ends over their past six contests, giving up 72 or more in 66.7% of those matchups, including 97 to Sam LaPorta in the NFC title game.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Monday:

Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.