Top 3 UFC 316 Props & Bets (2025)
There's no shortage of ways to get in on the sports betting action for this weekend's UFC 316 main card from Newark, New Jersey. Below, I've listed a trio of props, including prop bets on both of the championship bouts in the Men's and Women's Bantamweight divisions.
Let's dive into my favorite UFC 316 props and bets for Saturday, June 7th, 2025.
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UFC 316 Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Merab Dvalishvili (-285) vs. Sean O'Malley (+230)
All roads lead to a championship rematch in the Bantamweight division, as "Suga" Sean O'Malley (No. 1) looks to get his revenge on Merab Dvalishvili (champion). The sports betting market says that's unlikely, as the challenger is a sizable +230 underdog to reclaim the belt. Dvalishvili comes back at -285 to successfully defend his title for a second time.
I think this is a great buy-low spot on O'Malley, and I'm specifically looking to back him in the takedown defense department. In their initial meeting, O'Malley conceded six takedowns on 15 attempts, which equates to a 60% takedown defense rate. That's just below his career percentage of 61%.
I think O'Malley has a decent edge in this fight, considering Dvalishvili's essentially a one-trick pony and very reliant on his wrestling. He's already seen his best stuff once, and after fixing the torn labrum in his hip and having a full camp to train takedown defense, O'Malley's primed to shock some people with his defense on Saturday night. I'll lock in Dvalishvili to stay under 5.5 takedowns landed at even money.
Bet: Merab Dvalishvili Under 5.5 Takedowns Landed (+100)
Julianna Pena (+525) vs. Kayla Harrison (-750)
UFC gold is up for grabs in the co-main event, as Julianna Pena (champion) attempts to defend her championship status against the upward-trending Kayla Harrison (No. 2). This Women's Bantamweight bout sees the challenger as a massive -750 Moneyline favorite, while those who back the champ will receive a +525 payout if she wins the match.
The champ is being greatly disrespected in this matchup, and while I do expect Harrison to win the bout, I'm not sure it's going to be an absolute demolition like the betting market suggests.
Three of Harrison's last four fights have gone the distance, as have each of Pena's last two outings. The oddsmakers have a total of 4.5 rounds (+145/-188) set, so they're anticipating a longer fight as well. This number of 27.5 significant strikes landed feels insanely low. Pena has registered 28+ significant strikes in four consecutive fights, and as long as she can drag this fight into the championship rounds, I expect her to muster up at least 28 significant strikes.
Bet: Julianna Pena Over 27.5 Significant Strikes (-115)
Vicente Luque (-270) vs. Kevin Holland (+220)
The main card opens up with a fun matchup in the Welterweight division between Vicente Luque (No. 14) and Kevin Holland. Holland's amid a 2-4 run, and he's a +220 underdog to emerge victorious on Saturday night. The 14th-ranked Luque sits at -270, and he'll be looking for his second straight win.
A +150 payout on Luque to secure 1+ takedowns is just too good of a payout to pass up on. The 33-year-old isn't too active in the wrestling department, but when he wants to take it to the canvas, he's pretty successful at accomplishing that. He averages 0.99 takedowns per 15 minutes and is landing them at a 53% clip.
Luque draws a matchup against Holland, whose lack of takedown defense is a major reason as to why his career has flamed out. He's fending off an underwhelming 54% of opposing takedown attempts. Holland has conceded at least one takedown in three consecutive fights, as well as in 10 of his last 16 UFC tilts. Give me Luque to record a takedown on Saturday night.
Bet: Vincente Luque Over 0.5 Takedowns Landed (+150)