Top 3 WNBA Betting Picks for Sunday, August 22nd (2021)
For the first time in two years, WNBA star Elena Delle Donne is expected to suit up for the Washington Mystics. The two-time WNBA MVP has been working through a back injury, and she hasn’t taken the court since the 2019 WNBA Finals.
Since it’s difficult to project how much usage she’ll get in her return, I’m avoiding today’s game between the Mystics and Seattle Storm, and I recommend that you do the same.
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YTD: 1-1-0 (-.55u)
1. Sparks +3.5 | -110 at DK Sportsbook
My WNBA betting model doesn’t have a lock today, but this line is the closest thing to one. First, the Sparks are slightly more efficient than the Liberty, giving them an edge as 3.5-point dogs. Even though Los Angeles sports the WNBA’s least efficient offense, they outrank New York in net rating by 0.7 due to their strong defensive play. In contrast, defensive efficiency has been a problem for the Liberty, as they rank fourth-worst in the metric and allow the second-most points per game. My model’s efficiency-based spread for this matchup has the Sparks as 0.12-point underdogs because it values offense slightly more than defense, but that still points to value here.
Second, the Sparks have the talent necessary to cover. My player win share model actually favors the Sparks here (albeit by less than a point), and none of the players listed as probable or questionable for either team would sway the line. The Sparks also covered this spread against the Liberty earlier this season. They stormed back from an eight-point deficit to force a tie game entering the fourth quarter, although New York would wind up winning by three.
My model’s only concern with this pick is that the Sparks have underperformed on the road — they sit at just 3-5 ATS when outside of Los Angeles. But since that’s such a small sample, I’m willing to ignore the trends and take the points.
2. Sparks ML | +130 (.5u) at DK Sportsbook
This pick is simple math. If my model projects this game as a pick’em, then moneyline odds of +130 point to a positive return on investment. The Sparks enter today’s game on a three-game winning streak, but since they’re an abysmal 2-6 on the road this year, I’m limiting this play to a half-unit.
3. Liberty u79.5 | -120 (.5u) at BetMGM
The Sparks play at the WNBA’s third-slowest pace and feature the fourth-best defense, and I expect them to get the better of the Liberty here. We’ve seen them do it before, too, as New York scored just 76 points when these teams last met. Also, The Sparks haven’t allowed more than 74 points in regulation since the WNBA resumed play on August 15th. While it’s true that their three games came the WNBA’s worst two teams, I’m encouraged that they didn’t play down to their opponents.
That said, the spread has more value here, so I recommend that you keep your unit size small to avoid overexposure to today’s game. Limit yourself to a half-unit lay if you’re also playing the full-game spread.
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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.