Top 3 WNBA Betting Picks for Sunday, September 12th (2021)
Last week went very well for us — we turned a -2.61u hole into a +1.1u unit profit with just four bets! However, the Law of Large Numbers looms over us, so we’ll need to keep making smart bets if we want to preserve our slight edge over the books.
Here are my top picks for Sunday’s WNBA action.
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YTD: 9-8-0 (+1.1u)
1. Mystics +8 | -110 at DK Sportsbook
When the playoffs get close, game theory can help us make money. The No. 6 Chicago Sky have locked down a playoff spot and can’t reasonably change their seeding. They find themselves 3.5 games behind the No. 5 Phoenix Mercury and 3 games ahead of the No. 7 Dallas Wings. While they’ll want to enter the playoffs with momentum, they’ve only got three games left, so they don’t have much to lose (or win).
In contrast, the No. 8 Washington Mystics have a lot on the line today. They sit a half-game ahead of the No. 9 New York Liberty and a full game ahead of the No. 10 Los Angeles Sparks for the last playoff spot. I expect them to come out fighting for a win here.
My WNBA betting model also likes Washington. Using the season-long pace and efficiency data, the model gives Chicago just a 3.04-point advantage, well below the actual spread. The player win share model is less optimistic about the Mystics, as it favors the Sky by 8.9 points, but that gives Chicago an immaterial edge relative to the spread. However, it’s enough for me to limit this to a one-unit play.
2. Mystics ML | +280 (.2u) at DK Sportsbook
When betting on an underdog, sprinkling a partial unit on the moneyline can help you increase your profits without much risk. My model isn’t projecting a Washington win here, but it also assumes that the Sky have something to play for. They don’t. Put enough on the moneyline to profit a half-unit.
3. Sparks +7 | -110 (.5u) at DK Sportsbook
I’ll wrap up with a half-unit wager on the Sparks. My model doesn’t see much value here, but the game theory points to some on Los Angeles. They’re one game out of the playoffs, but they have three games left to play, two of which come against teams with losing records. A decent performance tonight could set up a run for the final playoff spot.
However, unlike the Sky, the No. 3 Seattle Storm do have something to play for: seeding. They’re 2.5 games behind the No. 2 Las Vegas Aces. They’re also just a half-game ahead of the No. 4 Minnesota Lynx and one game ahead of the No. 5 Phoenix Mercury. That said, they’ll have to play without star Breanna Stewart, and they’ve looked beatable in their most recent games.
The Sparks suffered ten and nine-point losses to the Storm with a healthy Stewart on the floor. Stewart scored 36.1% of her team’s points in the two matchups, so I expect the Sparks to keep things a bit closer since she won’t play.
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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.