Top 3 WNBA Betting Picks for Sunday, September 19th (2021)
We have reached the end of the WNBA’s regular season. Five games will tip-off today as we wrap things up before the playoffs, and we have a few battles to monitor. The Washington Mystics, Los Angeles Sparks, and New York Liberty could all qualify for the No. 8 seed in the playoffs, and two of them (Washington and Los Angeles) will take the court today.
Here are my top picks for Sunday’s WNBA action.
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YTD: 12-8-0 (+3.02u)
1. Mystics +5 | -105 at DK Sportsbook
The Washington Mystics have a simple job to do today. If they win, they qualify for this year’s WNBA playoffs. If they lose, the Los Angeles Sparks or the New York Liberty will claim the final playoff spot. That said, the team on the other side of the floor has something to play for, too. The Minnesota Lynx will earn the No. 3 seed with a win but will slide to the No. 4 seed with a loss.
Of course, qualifying for the playoffs is much more of a motivating factor. As such, I expect a close game and for the Mystics to cover.
I have a few other reasons to target this pick. First, the Mystics have been a rock-solid home team this year. They are 9-5 ATS on their home court; in contrast, the Lynx are an uninspiring 7-8 ATS on the road. The Mystics even beat the Lynx by four when they last met in D.C.
Second, my WNBA betting model gives Washington a very slight edge. The full-season efficiency metrics suggest a 3.64-point advantage for the Lynx, a little less than the spread. The counterpoint is that active player win shares suggest a 6.19-point advantage for the Lynx, a little more than the spread. Still, that comes out to a slight edge for Washington, and I’m confident enough to play them here.
2. Mystics ML | +190 (.25u) at DK Sportsbook
It’s always wise to get exposure to the moneyline when you’re taking an underdog. I recommend that you throw a quarter unit to win a half unit on this play.
3. Los Angeles Sparks +3.5* | -110 at DK Sportsbook
*ONLY TAKE THIS LINE IF THE WASHINGTON MYSTICS LOSE TO THE MINNESOTA LYNX.
If the Mystics lose, the Sparks will qualify for the playoffs with a win over Dallas. The Wings should get star forward Isabelle Harrison back from the COVID protocols today, but they’re also locked into the No. 7 seed in the playoffs. This game is absolutely meaningless for them. If the Sparks still have something to play for this afternoon, they’ll easily cover and probably win.
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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.