Top 3 WNBA Betting Picks for Tuesday, August 24th (2021)
The WNBA is back in action after a Monday off with a four-game slate. The league’s two best teams, the Las Vegas Aces and Connecticut Sun, will face off in the Mohegan Sun Arena, and my model loves the road underdog tonight.
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YTD: 3-2-0 (+0.51u)
1. Aces +2.5 | -110 at BetMGM
We’ve got an exciting matchup between the WNBA’s best two squads on tap this evening. They’re both tied for the WNBA’s best record (17-6), but the Sun are getting two and a half points because of home-court advantage. Unfortunately for Connecticut, the numbers don’t support such an advantage.
My WNBA betting model generates two spreads, one based on season-long efficiency data, the other based on available players’ win shares. Both metrics favor the Aces. The efficiency spread gives Las Vegas an advantage of 0.86 points; they outrank the Sun in offensive efficiency and net rating. The Sun play strong defense, but they may struggle to keep up with Las Vegas’ fast-paced offense — the Aces rank first in pace while the Sun rank last. Of course, the Aces could struggle if the Sun slow the game down, but the size of Las Vegas’ efficiency advantage gives them the upper hand in a medium-paced game.
The second spread, based on player win shares, favors the Aces by a 3.87-point margin. The Sun may have more individual win share leaders, but the Aces boast four players in the top 16 for win shares, more than any other team. They have an edge in depth over the Sun that could prove important if they’re able to speed up the game to a pace faster than what the Sun are used to.
My only concern is that the Aces have an unimpressive 4-5 ATS record on the road, compared to the Sun’s rock-solid 8-3 ATS record at home. However, that’s a relatively small sample size, so I recommend that you bet based on my model’s spreads instead.
2. Aces ML | +120 (.5u) at DK Sportsbook
We rode a moneyline underdog with the Spark on Sunday, and we’ll do that again with the Aces today. Since my model gives Las Vegas a win probability above 50%, this pick offers a positive return on investment, as the line’s implied odds sit at just 45.5%. That said, limit your bet to a partial unit if you’re also planning to take the moneyline.
3. Sky -5.5 | -115 (.5u) at BetMGM
My model likes Chicago here, too, although much less than it likes Vegas. Even though the Sky probably won’t have Candace Parker, their fourth-ranked player in win shares, they still have a massive advantage over the struggling Atlanta Dream. The win share model gives the Sky a 10.2-point advantage over the Dream despite Parker’s absence, as Atlanta won’t have Chennedy Carter (suspension) or Cheyenne Parker (personal). Even the efficiency-based model, which doesn’t adjust for Atlanta’s loss of Carter and Parker, doesn’t love the Dream here. It also helps that Atlanta has struggled against the spread at home this year — they have a disappointing 4-7 ATS record in Atlanta.
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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.