Top 3 WNBA Betting Picks for Tuesday, August 31st (2021)
The WNBA is back after a Monday off with a four-game slate this evening. The numbers point to solid betting value on the game between the Phoenix Mercury and Chicago Sky, and two of my featured picks hinge upon Chicago’s ability to play well as the underdog.
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YTD: 5-5-0 (-0.61u)
1. Sky +1.5 | -115 at DK Sportsbook
The Chicago Sky should win tonight’s game against the Phoenix Mercury. They’re riding a three-game winning streak into the matchup, and they just took down the third-ranked Seattle Storm in back-to-back matchups. The Mercury will enter this game on a six-game tear of their own, but their star center, Brittney Griner, suffered an ankle injury in their last contest and is questionable tonight. My model already considers this a strong bet for Chicago if she does play, but it’s a lock if she doesn’t.
The win-share component of my model flags this spread as incredibly vulnerable. Based on overall player win shares divided by games played, the model gives Chicago an expected win percentage of 67.2% — considerably higher than their actual win percentage (53.8%) and much higher than what it expects for Phoenix (58.3%). It converts this discrepancy into a 2.59-point advantage for the Sky. If Griner sits, Phoenix’s expected win percentage would tumble to just 37.5%, giving Chicago a 7.52-point advantage. Like I said, free money.
The counterpoint is that the Sky could be without a big of their own, Astou Ndour, who is also questionable. However, Ndour’s absence would only drop Chicago’s expected win percentage to 64%, which isn’t a big deal. Ndour has only played double-digit minutes in two of Chicago’s games this month, too.
Of course, win shares aren’t a perfect metric to gauge a team’s expected performance. That’s why my model generates another spread based on efficiency. However, that part of my model also favors the Sky, albeit by an only 0.36-point margin. The edge there is mostly immaterial.
So while the model doesn’t flag efficiency as a reason to pick Chicago, it does flag the trends. Chicago has gone a rock-solid 8-5 ATS when playing on the road this season; in contrast, the Mercury are just 5-7 ATS at home. Take the Sky plus the points before the line moves in their favor.
2. Sky ML | -105 (.5) at DK Sportsbook
I’ll double-down on this play because the model points to a positive return on investment here. Chicago’s chances of winning this game are higher than their implied odds (52.38%) would suggest, so feel free to chase your bet against the spread with a higher-value moneyline play. I’m limiting this wager to a partial unit because we’ve already laid a full unit on an incredibly narrow spread.
3. Mystics +9 | -110 (.5) at DK Sportsbook
The Mystics suffered a 19-point blowout loss to the Sun on June 29th, but circumstances have changed since then. Star forward Elena Delle Donne has finally returned to their lineup, and she has averaged 13.7 points and 4.3 rebounds per game through her first three appearances. To be fair, the Mystics are easing her back into action, but she’ll have had four days off before this matchup, and I expect an increased workload.
My model agrees with my read here, as the Mystics have been more efficient than this spread indicates. The efficiency metrics reveal a 4.81-point advantage for the Sun, which gives us a solid chunk of edge here. Also, the Mystics have gone 8-5 ATS at home, while the Sun are just 7-6 ATS on the road. That said, I’m limiting the size of this play because Delle Donne remains questionable for the matchup, and I’m uncertain about how long she’ll stay in the game for Washington.
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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.