Top 4 MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Saturday (10/4)
We're onto the Divisional Round of the MLB playoffs, and we have a loaded four-game slate ahead of us today. All eight of the remaining teams are in action. Below, I'll dive into all four games from a sports betting angle. Here are my top four MLB picks & predictions.
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Saturday's Best MLB Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of Hard Rock Bet)
Chicago Cubs (+130) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (-150) | O/U 7.5 (+105/-130)
Saturday's four-game docket kicks off with the I-94 Rivalry between the Cubs (0-0) and the Brewers (0-0). The well-rested Brewers will turn to Freddy Peralta in the opener, while the visiting Cubs opt for Matthew Boyd. First pitch is scheduled for 2:08 p.m. ET from American Family Field in Milwaukee, WI.
I'm laying the juice with the Brew Crew in the opener. It really boils down to two words: Freddy Peralta. He has been a Cubs killer throughout his career, and their current roster is slashing just .157/.261/.309 against him over 178 at-bats. Peralta has been dialed in all season, going 17-6 with a 2.70 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP. His 204 strikeouts were the ninth-most in the Majors. Milwaukee also went 52-29 at home this season, and I can guarantee that this yard will be rocking on Saturday afternoon. Give me the Brewers on the Moneyline.
Bet: Brewers Moneyline (-150)
The Yankees (0-0) and the Blue Jays (0-0) finished the regular season with identical records of 94-68, but it was Toronto's 8-5 head-to-head edge that helped them secure the top American League seed, as well as home-field advantage for this specific series. Luis Gil will toe the rubber for New York, while Toronto counters with Kevin Gausman. First pitch is set for 4:08 p.m. ET from the Rogers Centre in Toronto, ON.
The Yankees have won two straight games and are now in the midst of an insane 13-2 stretch of baseball. With momentum on their side, I'm running to the window to lock in the Bronx Bombers at plus-money. Gil (3.32 ERA) was sharp in 11 starts (57 innings) this season, and he has also limited Toronto's current roster to an underwhelming slash line of .188/.381/.250 over 64 at-bats.
On the other hand, Gausman hasn't looked good recently. He closed out the season allowing eight earned runs in his final two starts (9.1 innings), which translates to a 7.71 ERA. New York boasts the league's best offense in terms of runs per game, scoring 5.20 runs per contest. They're averaging 5.6 runs per game during their 13-2 stretch. I'll take the plus-money with the Yankees.
Bet: Yankees Moneyline (+105)
Los Angeles Dodgers (+100) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (-120) | O/U 7.5 (+105/-130)
The Dodgers (0-0) cruised past the Reds in the Wild Card Round, setting up this heavyweight showdown in the Divisional Round against the Phillies (0-0). Shohei Ohtani gets the nod for L.A., while Philadelphia sends Cristopher Sanchez to the mound. Game 1 gets underway at 6:38 p.m. ET from Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, PA.
Runs were plentiful in the opening round of the playoffs for the Dodgers, as they cleared the 7.5-run mark by themselves in both games and averaged nine runs per game against the Reds. They were the second-best offense in the Majors this season, putting up 5.14 runs per contest. Los Angeles is running into Sanchez (2.50 ERA), who struggled mightily against them this season. In two starts against the Dodgers, he posted a 5.68 ERA and they hit .265 against him.
On the other side of things, I don't expect a ton of scoring from the Phillies against Ohtani. However, the sooner they can get to the bullpen, the better. The Dodgers' relief staff has logged a 10.38 ERA and a horrendous 2.77 WHIP through two postseason games. They're the clear Achilles heel of this roster, and the experienced, dangerous Phillies lineup should be able to score late. Give me the over.
Bet: Over 7.5 Runs (+105)
Detroit Tigers (+170) vs. Seattle Mariners (-220) | O/U 7.5 (+115/-145)
The action wraps up out West with the second-seeded Mariners (0-0) playing host to the Tigers (0-0). Detroit took care of Cleveland 2-1 in the Wild Card Round. Troy Melton will go for the Tigers in Game 1, while the M's turn to George Kirby. The MLB nightcap is set for 8:38 p.m. ET from T-Mobile Park in Seattle, WA.
Seattle entered the season with a lot of hype surrounding their starting rotation, but the truth is that it has been a pedestrian year for them. That includes 27-year-old Kirby, who was just serviceable with a 4.21 ERA. The right-hander hasn't fared well against the Tigers either, as their current roster is slashing .271/.320/.700 against him over 70 at-bats. That's a lofty OPS of 1.020.
As for the M's, they brought the lumber this season. They finished the regular campaign ranked ninth in scoring (4.73 runs per game). Seattle went 17-4 to close out the year, averaging 6.05 runs per contest over the 21-game sample size. Detroit will mostly turn to its bullpen in this game, but I expect Seattle's upward-trending offense to do enough to help push this final score over the number. Give me the over.
Bet: Over 7.5 Runs (+115)