Top 4 MLB Player Prop Bet Odds, PIcks & Predictions: Saturday (10/1)

It’s the final weekend of the Major League Baseball season and things continue to intensify in a couple of tight playoff races. The Braves won last night’s series opener over the Mets and earned a share of the lead in the N.L. East with both teams now sitting at 98-59. The other exciting race is the N.L. Wild Card, where the Phillies hold a 0.5-game edge over the Brewers for the final playoff spot. The dust is far from settled, especially from a gambling standpoint. Here are my top four player props for today’s 16-game slate. 

Odds Courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>

Top 4 MLB Player Prop Bet Odds, PIcks & Predictions: Saturday (10/1)

Jose Ramirez O/U 1.5 Total Bases 

The Guardians picked up a 6-3 win last night and that moved them to 10-1 over their last 11 games and 14-2 over their last 16. Zach Plesac gets the nod tonight as he makes his return from the IL due to the self-inflicted hand injury. As for the Royals, they’ll go with Kris Bubic in this A.L. Central showdown set for 6:10 p.m. ET from Progressive Field. 

Bubic is having a forgettable season for Kansas City. The left-hander enters tonight’s game at 2-13 with a 5.81 ERA and 1.72 WHIP over 27 appearances (26 starts). Most recently, Bubic surrendered three earned runs on five hits and four walks over 4.2 innings against the Mariners. It was a no-decision effort that the Royals lost 6-5. They’ve now lost his last eight starts and he’s 0-7 over that stretch. 

Bubic has made two starts against Cleveland this season and posted a 10.29 ERA and 1.71 WHIP over 7.0 innings. The Guardians are hitting .321 against him in 2022 with nine hits and eight runs scored. More specifically, Jose Ramirez has seen him pretty well. He’s 2-4 (.500) against Bubic with a pair of singles and three RBI. On the season, Jo-Ram is hitting .274 (39th) with 29 home runs (22nd) and an OPS of .863 (14th). Let’s take a shot with the over on his total bases with a slight plus-money payout. 

Bet: Jose Ramirez Over 1.5 Total Bases (+110 via DraftKings)

Andres Gimenez O/U 0.5 Total Bases

Moving down the lineup a touch, I’m going to roll with Andres Gimenez and his over on total bases. The budding middle infielder is hitting .303 (10th) on the year with 17 long balls (83rd) and a .851 OPS (16th). He’s 2-2 (1.000) against Bubic in his career with a pair of knocks. 

If you can find this number at 1.5, I would definitely greenlight that to take off some of this juice. I expect he’ll get a few quality AB’s today, especially considering the Royals have one of the worst bullpens in baseball. They’re 28th in bullpen ERA (4.74) and dead last in WHIP (1.50). 

Bet: Andres Gimenez Over 0.5 Total Bases (-210 via DraftKings)

Max Scherzer O/U 7.5 Strikeouts

The marquee game of the night features an electric pitching matchup between Max Scherzer and Kyle Wright in Atlanta. This divisional clash is slated for 7:20 p.m. ET and if you don’t have any plans, you’ll definitely want to be tuned into this game. 

Mad Max continues to dominate at the age of 38 and sits at 11-4 on the year with a 2.13 ERA and 0.88 WHIP. The right-hander last pitched on Sunday against Oakland and limited them to one earned run on four hits and a walk over 6.0 innings. Scherzer earned his second straight win in the 13-4 rout of the lowly Athletics. 

This is what Scherzer was born for. A division title is on the line and the playoffs are right around the corner… I expect him to bring his best stuff tonight and be near untouchable. He’s made three starts against the Braves this season and posted a 2.21 ERA with a 0.64 WHIP over 20.1 innings. Atlanta’s hitting just .145 against him in 2022 and the current lineup is 45-214 (.210) against him over his career. As for the strikeout numbers, here’s what Scherzer has recorded against Atlanta over three starts this year: 8, 11, 9. He’s cleared 7.5 punchouts in all three outings and I think should be able to do it again tonight. The Braves have the third-highest K% in baseball at 24.5%, so let’s roll with Mad Max’s over on K’s tonight. 

Bet: Max Scherzer Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+105 via DraftKings)

Matt Duffy O/U 0.5 Total Bases 

We’ll close it out with a significantly less important game out west between the Rangers and Angels. Although, no game is insignificant if you have some cash riding on it. Texas opts for Cole Ragans tonight while the Halos counter with Jose Suarez in this A.L. West matchup set for 9:07 p.m. ET from Anaheim. 

Ragans is set to make his ninth start of the season and he hasn’t been great over those 35.0 frames. The southpaw comes in at 0-3 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.54 WHIP. Most recently, he gave up four runs (three earned) on six hits and a walk over 5.0 innings against the Guardians on Sunday. Ragans took the loss and the Rangers are just 1-3 over his last four starts. 

One of those losses was against the Angels in a game where Ragans gave up a pair of earned runs on seven hits over 4.2 innings. In that game, Matt Duffy went 3-4 with a home run and two singles. He’s now 2-2 (1.000) against Ragans with the homer and two RBI. Let’s lock in the over on Duffy’s total bases tonight. 

Bet: Matt Duffy Over 0.5 Total Bases (-195 via DraftKings)

Go premium to view top prop bets based on Cover Probability, Expected Value & Star Rating >>

Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts