Top 4 NBA Betting Picks for Sunday, December 5th (2021)
We’ve got an… interesting four-game slate on tap this Sunday. The day’s best matchup, Utah at Cleveland, will tip-off at 3:30 p.m. ET. After that, though, things could get a little messy. As a result, I’m limiting the size of today’s bets.
Here are my top NBA betting picks for Sunday’s action.
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Written Picks YTD: 48-41-0 (+15.05u)
Total Picks YTD: 64-69-0 (+14.04u)*
*Follow me @is_sirois for any other plays.
1. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope o10.5 Points | +100 (.5u) at FD Sportsbook
The Toronto Raptors have struggled against opposing small forwards. They have allowed the seventh-most points per game to the position on the year (22.1), and that number has only gotten worse over their last seven games (23.1). They rank fourth-worst through that stretch.
Enter Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. KCP averages 10.9 points per game, a nose above this total, and has gone over this number in four of his last five games. He has done so while playing 91% of his minutes at the three, the highest such rate of anyone on Washington’s roster. As a result, I’m surprised to see this line sitting in the plus money.
That said, we’re limiting this play (and the rest of today’s!) to a half-unit. Today’s card is sloppy, and we should have safer picks later in the week.
2. Eric Gordon o2.5 Turnovers | +110 (.5u) at DK Sportsbook
The Rockets have thrust Eric Gordon back into a sizeable role. Since he re-entered their starting lineup on November 17th, Gordon has averaged 32.8 minutes per game. More importantly, he has averaged 3.1 turnovers per game through that stretch. There’s another reason to target Gordon, though: KPJ’s injury.
With Kevin Porter Jr. out, Gordon will end up getting more of the handles. Gordon averaged three turnovers per game when KPJ missed three games a few weeks ago, and Gordon averaged five per game when KPJ was limited to less than 20 minutes through Houston’s last two games.
I like Gordon’s turnovers prop because the New Orleans Pelicans have been solid against opposing backcourts. Through their last seven games, the Pels have forced opposing point guards to turn the ball over 4.31 times per game, the second-highest such rate in the NBA. And even though Gordon plays most of his minutes at shooting guard, the Pels have been solid there, too. Through that same stretch, they have forced opposing twos to turn the ball over 2.69 times per game, good for the NBA’s 10th-best rate.
3. Donovan Mitchell o1.5 Steals | -105 (.5u) at DK Sportsbook
Donovan Mitchell has been a bit of a klepto this year. He is averaging 1.8 steals per game, which would be the best mark in his career if he can keep things up. Mitchell has forced at least two steals in 11 of his 21 starts this season (52.3%), which gives us the slightest bit of edge relative to this line’s implied odds (51.2%).
We’re targeting Mitchell because Cleveland has struggled with turnovers to an extent. They permit opponents to steal the ball 9.1 times per game. Over their last seven outings, opposing ones have averaged 1.65 steals per game against the Cavaliers.
Darius Garland and Ricky Rubio, now Cleveland’s two primary ballhandlers, average 6.9 turnovers per game. I suspect Mitchell will account for two of those tonight.
4. Parlay: KCP o10.5 PTS + Gordon o2.5 TO + Mitchell o1.5 STL | +700 (.1u) at DK Sportsbook
Let’s parlay the above three props. If we bet just .1u at +700, we’re (obviously) set to make a decent profit of .7u. We’ll remain in the black as long as two of the above props hit, too. With better games in store on Monday and Tuesday, don’t overcommit your bankroll to a relatively risky card.
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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.