Top 4 NBA Betting Picks for Sunday, January 2nd (2021)
Happy New Year! We’ve got a seven-game NBA slate on tap today. We’ll start off with the Knicks and Raptors at 2:30 p.m. ET, and we’ll wrap up with the Timberwolves and Lakers at 8:30 p.m ET. I’m targeting the early game with a pair of props, and I’ve also got action for one of the mid-evening matchups — the Suns and Hornets.
Here are my top NBA betting picks for Sunday’s action.
Get a risk-free bet up to $500 at FanDuel Sportsbook >>
Written Picks YTD: 63-63-0 (+11.52u)
Model ATS Picks YTD: 69-55-1 (+7.8u)*
Model ML Picks YTD: 9-14 (+4.0u)*
*Follow me @is_sirois for the model’s picks.
1. Pascal Siakam o7.5 Rebounds | -112 at FD Sportsbook
2. Pascal Siakam 10+ Rebounds | +215 (.25u) at FD Sportsbook
I don’t think the books have adjusted this number enough. The Knicks won’t have Mitchell Robinson, Julius Randle, Jericho Sims, or Nerlens Noel tonight. Those four players rank as their top glass-cleaners in rebound rate; no player remaining on their roster owns a number above 13.1%.
On the others side of the floor, Toronto won’t have rookies Scottie Barnes or D.J. Wilson tonight. Those two rank third and sixth in rebound rate, respectively. However, they will have Precious Achiuwa and Chris Boucher, their top two players in rebound rate. Siakam slots in at fifth with a rebound rate of 12.4%. He also averages 8.1 rebounds per game, a nose above this number.
I’m still targeting Siakam because of his impressive showing in his last game against the Knicks. He racked up 12 boards in that game (which he played alongside Boucher, but not Achiuwa). Scottie Barnes nabbed 15 boards, too, so there should be plenty of boards to go around tonight.
Let’s tease this one up slightly just to maximize our exposure. You’ll still profit a healthy .6u even if Siakam ends up getting just eight or nine boards.
3. LaMelo Ball o7.5 Rebounds | -110 at DK Sportsbook
Here we find another poorly-set total given the circumstances. The Phoenix Suns will have to play without most of their big men tonight, including Deandre Ayton, JaVale McGee, and Jae Crowder.
The Suns also happen to permit the sixth-most rebounds per game to point guards, too, at 7.0. That number has even ticked up to 7.9 over their last seven games. LaMelo Ball recorded 10 rebounds in his last meeting against the Suns, and he did so in only 25 minutes. With Phoenix’s depleted roster likely to keep this one closer — and with both teams ranked top five in pace factor — Ball shouldn’t have a problem stuffing the stat sheet.
As a result, we’re betting on the 6-foot-7 point guard to clean the glass. He ranks third on this squad in rebound rate (12.4%) and first in rebounds per game (7.6). Let’s play a single unit on this and cook up an SGP that allows us to tease this number up, shall we?
4. SGP: LaMelo Ball 10+ Rebounds + CHO +6.5 | +370 (.25u) at FD Sportsbook
Unfortunately, I haven’t seen a book offer a double-double line for LaMelo, and FanDuel doesn’t have any player performance doubles posted for the Hornets. DraftKings also doesn’t allow us to take Ball 10+ points (the lowest we can go is 18.5), so we’ll roll with a teased-down spread instead.
The Hornets should keep this one within a five-point margin. While it’s true that the Suns took care of business against them in their last meeting, Phoenix won’t have either the 48 points or the 28 rebounds they got from Ayton, Crowder, and McGee. Their reserve bigs, Jalen Smith and the newly signed Bismack Biyombo, probably won’t contribute enough for Phoenix to secure another blowout win.
Join the BettingPros Discord Chat for Live Betting Advice >>
Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our Sports Betting 101 Section — including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners — or head to more advanced sports betting strategy — like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread — to learn more.
Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.