Top 4 NBA Betting Picks for Sunday, October 31st (2021)
Happy Halloween! If you’re looking to spend the spookiest day of the year betting on hoops, I’ve got a couple of plays that shouldn’t make your life any scarier.
Here are my top NBA betting picks for Sunday’s action.
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Written Picks YTD: 11-4-0 (+8.67u)
Total Picks YTD: 21-15-0 (+13u)*
*Follow me @is_sirois for any other plays.
1. Gordon Hayward o18.5 Points | -106 at FD Sportsbook
2. Gordon Hayward 3+ Made Threes | +180 (.5u) at FD Sportsbook
Gordon Hayward can disappear at times, but I’m not worried about him going ghost on us against the Trail Blazers. Portland plays at the NBA’s fastest pace, and the Hornets aren’t far behind, so we should expect a ton of possessions in this game. The total for it (230.5) indicates a solidly high-scoring affair, too.
I’m targeting Hayward because of Portland’s defensive vulnerabilities. Small forwards have lit up the Trail Blazers this season for 30.5 points per game — the worst figure in the NBA by almost an entire point. They’re especially bad at keeping threes contained on the perimeter, as opposing small forwards are averaging 5.29 made threes per game against Portland. Hayward has spent 82% of his minutes at the three, so QED.
Hayward’s own per-game numbers point to some value on the points. He is averaging 19.2 points per game and has gone over this total in three of six games. While Terry Rozier’s impending return to the lineup could limit some of his opportunities, he should have more than enough open shots from deep to cash the over.
Speaking of shots from deep, Hayward makes 2.5 of them per game on 5.2 attempts. Those averages suggest that this prop should be closer to +100 than +180. While it’s true that Hayward has only cash the over twice this season, he did so in the only game that Rozier suited up for, so I’m reasonably confident that Scary Terry won’t interfere with this prop.
3. Isaiah Stewart o7.5 Rebounds | +110 at FD Sportsbook
Isaiah Stewart, Detroit’s starting center, finds himself in a good situation tonight. The Brooklyn Nets won’t have either Paul Millsap or Nicolas Claxton, which is a shame because those two players are Brooklyn’s best rebounders. Millsap leads the team in rebounding percentage (15.4%), and Claxton is a close second (14.4). While the two of them don’t play a ton of minutes, it’s reassuring that Stewart will mostly have to fight older, less efficient bigs on the glass.
Stewart has been a solid rebounder himself. The 20-year-old records 7.6 rebounds per game and averages 23.6 minutes. He ranks second on the Pistons in rebounding percentage (17.1%), trailing only wunderkind Cade Cunningham (19.6%) in the metric, but Cunningham has only played once this year. Stewart has gone over this total in three of five games thus far, too.
The numbers from last year also point to some value. Stewart played 10-plus minutes against Brooklyn just once, and he recorded eight boards in that game. Look for him to make his presence known in the paint with the Nets’ options limited. The juice makes this a slam-dunk value.
4. Parlay: Hayward 2+ 3PT + Stewart 6+ RBD + Lakers ML | +149 (.5u) at FD Sportsbook
I’m don’t love tonight’s five-game slate for high-risk parlays. That said, a nice bankroll builder will do. Teasing the above totals down slightly gives us a parlay with +113 odds, so we’ll throw in Los Angeles’ moneyline for a bit of extra value. This is a bit of a risk — the Lakers are a public team and have been inconsistent thus far. However, Los Angeles hasn’t lost a game against Houston since James Harden left, and they’ll have home-court advantage for this one. The Rockets are on a three-game losing skid, too, so it’s not like the young squad has any momentum.
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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.