Top 4 Odds & Picks for NASCAR FireKeepers Casino 400 at Michigan (8/7)

by BettingPros Staff |
Aug 07, 2022

Let’s check out the top odds and picks for the NASCAR FireKeepers Casino 400 at Michigan Speedway.

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Odds to Win the FireKeepers Casino 400

Best Picks for the FireKeepers Casino 400

The NASCAR Cup Series races at only two two-mile intermediate tracks: Auto Club Speedway and Michigan International Speedway. The two are highly correlated, although Auto Club's aging track surface differs from Michigan's smoother pavement. Still, I intend to lean heavily on the results from Auto Club when making my picks.

We do have a few other solid comparator circuits. Las Vegas Speedway, Kansas Speedway, and Charlotte Motor Speedway all have relatively smooth surfaces, and drivers who performed well in those races should fare well on Sunday. Drivers who looked good in the All-Star Race at Texas Motor Speedway should benefit, too.

1. Winner: Kyle Larson | +750 (.25u) at PointsBet

Larson should be the favorite this weekend. He has won at Michigan three times in just 13 starts. Only two active drivers, Kevin Harvick and Greg Biffle, have won more Michigan races. But it took Harvick 40 tries to win five times (and 38 to win three), and it took Biffle 20 tries to get four wins (and 19 to win three).

Further, Larson's dominance at Michigan extends to its sister track, Auto Club Speedway. He owns a pair of wins there, the second-most among active drivers, in just eight starts. That includes this year's race, which was the only start he made at Auto Club for Hendrick Motorsports.

The books haven't made Larson their favorite for Sunday's event. I find this odd. They're running with Chase Elliott and Kyle Busch instead, but neither driver has won races at these tracks at a higher clip than Larson. Elliott hasn't even won at either circuit. Busch and Elliott have been great at the shorter, smoother intermediates this year, but that doesn't justify them having shorter odds than Larson.

2. Long shot: Austin Dillon | +7000 (.05u) at PointsBet

I like Erik Jones as a long shot this weekend. He looked dominant at Auto Club earlier this year and recorded the best driver rating in the event. Unfortunately, the books aren't stupid. You'll find Jones at only +2500 at most sites. But the books are forgetting about Austin Dillon.

Dillon finished one spot better than Jones at Auto Club. While he didn't lead any laps or earn any stage points like Jones did, Dillon still scored a second-place finish. Further, Dillon's teammate, Tyler Reddick, led the most laps and recorded the second-best driver rating. His team will have Reddick's notes from that event to use this weekend.

Dillon has also impressed at the shorter, smoother intermediates. This year, he finished a respectable 13th at Kansas and 11th at Las Vegas. But Dillon has found weird ways to win at these tracks in prior years-his 2020 win at Texas and 2017 win at Charlotte come to mind-and he could pull off an upset again on Sunday. This line is trading at +5000 across the market, so PointsBet is handing out +2000 of extra value at their site.

3. Larson (+100 (1.25u) at DraftKings) vs. Elliott

The books are once again overrating Elliott. Although this line didn't hit last weekend, Larson and Elliott were running pretty similar races before Larson's brakes stopped working. As a result, I'm stunned to see Larson's implied odds at exactly a coin flip.

Larson beat Elliott at Auto Club this year. He also finished ahead of Elliott in his lone Michigan start for Hendrick Motorsports. Further, Larson was beating Elliott here in Michigan before he even joined Hendrick. He is 6-3 against Elliott at Michigan all time. Lastly, Elliott hasn't recorded a top-five finish here since June 2017. Larson has added one win and three top fives to his Michigan resume since then.

Elliott's streak of consecutive top-two finishes came to an end last weekend. I already wasn't scared of the momentum, but I'm even less scared of it now. Backing Larson on multiple markets is a surefire way to secure profitable picks for the FireKeepers Casino 400.

4. Top 10: Austin Dillon | +190 (.45u) at FanDuel

We'll come back to Dillon for this prop. He scored a top 10 at Auto Club and barely missed the top 10 at two shorter, smoother intermediates, Kansas and Las Vegas. As a result, I'm surprised that his line is this long.

Dillon is no stranger to the top 10 at Michigan, either. He owns five career top-10 results in 18 starts. His most recent such finish came in 2020, the second-to-last Michigan race.

The No. 3 team has scored an impressive seven top-10 results this season. That's more than three drivers who have won this season: Denny Hamlin (5), William Byron (5), and Chase Briscoe (4). While the consistency hasn't been enough to put Dillon in playoff contention, this team should continue to make smart late-race decisions that keep their driver toward the front.

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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.

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