Top 4 Olympic Betting Picks for Tuesday, August 3rd (2021)
The Olympic basketball knockout stage is upon us. While the men’s side didn’t provide us with any upsets, we did get to see a 38-point performance from Ricky Rubio against Team USA. We also got to see a fitting tribute to the 41-year-old Luis Scola in his final Olympic appearance.
On the women’s side, the first round of knockout play will take place tonight. Here are the best picks for the quarterfinals — along with one Olympic baseball pick.
Olympic Lock of the Day: Belgium +2.5 | Women’s Basketball | -110 at DK Sportsbook
Olympic Lock YTD: 2-4 -2.09u
Belgium gave us a big win back in group play, and I’m returning to the well for their game against Japan. The Belgians rank third in efficiency this tournament, behind only the United States and China, while Japan ranks an unimpressive seventh. I’m not sure why the Japanese are favored by 2.5 here — these teams have met twice since 2018, and Belgium covered this spread both times.
Belgium beat Japan by eight points during qualifying play last February. They did so by playing an incredibly efficient game, as they outrebounded Japan by 10 and shot 61.7% from the field. Emma Meesseman exploded for 23 points and seven rebounds in the victory.
Although Japan beat Belgium by two in the 2018 FIBA World Cup, they needed overtime to do so, and they had to overcome a nine-rebound disadvantage in the win. Belgium’s unimpressive shooting percentage (43.5%) and 18 fouls cost them dearly. However, Belgium overcame their loss to Japan and finished fourth; in contrast, Japan fell in the qualification round and finished ninth.
Other Olympic Betting Picks
Other Picks YTD: 7-8 -0.53u
#1. Belgium ML | Women’s Basketball | +125 at DK Sportsbook
Again, I don’t understand why Japan is favored. While the spread gives you a bit of breathing room, the moneyline comes with a bit more betting value. Belgium outranks Japan in efficiency, field goal percentage (45.9% to 41.1%), rebounds (41 to 33.3), and steals (10.3 to 7.7) per game. Japan’s success at these games stems from their elite three-point shooting. They rank first in three-point percentage (38.5%) and made threes per game (13.3). But Japan went 17-37 (45.9%) from beyond the arc against Belgium in qualifying play and still lost by eight, so I feel comfortable taking Belgium on the moneyline.
#2. Ezi Magbegor u5.5 Rebounds | Women’s Basketball| -115 at DK Sportsbook
Targeting the under on rebound props for Team USA’s opponents is a solid strategy. The United States leads the tournament in rebounds per game (46.3) because of the size advantage that their bigs afford them. At 6-foot-8, Brittney Griner recorded 13.3 rebounds per 40 minutes in group play. Likewise, 6-foot-4 A’Ja Wilson recorded 14.6 rebounds per 40 minutes. Both rates are considerably better than 6-foot-4 Ezi Magbegor’s average (8.4). Magbegor has been the third-best rebounder on her own team, behind Marianne Tolo and Cayla George, and she should stay under this total against Team USA.
#3. United States -1.5 | Baseball | -160 (1.25u) at DK Sportsbook
Team USA will trot out 37-year-old MLB pitcher Scott Kazmir to face the Dominican Republic tonight in an elimination game. Kazmir made a pair of starts for the San Francisco Giants, and although his ERA (6.43) wasn’t great, that came through just seven innings, five of which were against the Dodgers’ potent offense. He fared much better in AAA, where he recorded a much better ERA (3.70) through 24.1 innings. He’ll face the 24-year-old Denyi Reyes, who currently pitches in AA for the Portland Sea Dogs. So while I give the Americans a slight advantage on the mound, their offense inspires more confidence. The Americans have scored 18 runs through three games to the Dominican’s 14 through four. Team USA boasts two of the top-five batters in OPS, Tyler Austin and Triston Casas, while the Dominicans have just one batter in the whole top 15. This is a relatively safe play, and you should feel comfortable putting enough down to secure a one-unit return.
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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.