Top 4 Olympic Betting Picks for Wednesday, August 4th (2021)
We’re down to four teams in both the men’s and women’s basketball tournaments at the 2020 Tokyo Olympics. While we didn’t see any first-round upsets on the men’s side, both France and Serbia scored impressive wins as betting underdogs, and Belgium nearly did the same.
Those upsets cashed two of my pre-tournament bets, moving me to a nice +5.54u on those plays.
Whi;e I would be surprised to see an upset in the men’s semifinal games tonight, I’m not ruling it out. In fact, I’ve included a partial-unit wager on a moneyline underdog below.
Olympic Lock of the Day: Nick Kay o7.5 Rebounds | Men’s Basketball | -115 at DK Sportsbook
Olympic Lock YTD: 3-4 -1.18u
Nick Kay, one of Australia’s two healthy big men, is primed for a big performance on the glass against Team USA tonight. Kay recorded nine boards in 26 minutes when these teams met in Las Vegas, and he leads these two teams in rebounds per game (7.3).
The Americans have struggled on the glass in Tokyo. They’re averaging just 35.8 rebounds per game through their first four outings, the third-worst rate of teams that qualified for knockout play. Spain just outrebounded the United States by 10 in the quarterfinals, too.
Team USA has been getting outrebounded because of a lack of size and differences in FIBA rules. The tallest American player, 7-foot JaVale McGee, doesn’t usually see much action. The next-tallest player, 6-foot-11 Kevin Durant, doesn’t really go in for rebounds that often. He had only two of them against Spain and is averaging just 4.3 per game. That leaves 6-foot-9 Bam Adebayo to do most of the work on the glass, but his team-leading rate of five rebounds per game ranks him 21st among all Olympic players. For some perspective, 5-foot-10 Facundo Campazzo boasted a higher average with 5.3 rebounds per game through Argentina’s four outings.
So why is this happening? Because FIBA rules allow big men to sit in the paint, America’s small-ball lineup is vulnerable to, well, big men who sit in the paint.
Kay has hit the over on this prop in all but one of his Olympic outings. He recorded eight boards against Nigeria, seven against Italy, and ten against Argentina in the quarterfinals — all relatively small lineups like Team USA’s — but was held to just four against a bigger German squad. He should easily cash the over again tonight.
Other Olympic Betting Picks
Other Picks YTD: 10-9 +.12u
#1. Australia +12 | Men’s Basketball | -105 at DK Sportsbook
The Australian Boomers are on a two-game winning streak against Team USA. Sure, both of their wins came in friendlies, but they just have to keep this one competitive to cover the spread. They won their last meeting by eight points, so the Americans will need a 20-point swing to cover. While Team USA has since added Devin Booker, Jrue Holiday, and Khris Middleton to their roster, they did have Bradley Beal in their previous defeat.
#2. Australia ML | Men’s Basketball | +500 (.2u) at DK Sportsbook
After their last win, Joe Ingles told reporters that the Aussies “walked into this game expecting to win.†Since then, the Australians have gone undefeated, while the Americans lost to France and had to come back against an aging Spanish team twice. Sure, Kevin Durant makes Team USA difficult to bet against, but that’s why we’re minimizing the unit size on this play. Australia has proven that they have a better chance of winning this game than their implied odds (16.7%) indicate, so I recommend that you risk just enough to secure a one-unit return.
#3. Mike Tobey u10.5 Rebounds | Men’s Basketball | +105 at DK Sportsbook
Slovenia’s 7-foot center, Mike Tobey, hasn’t stayed under this total all tournament. He recorded 14 against Argentina, 14 against Spain, 11 against Japan, and 11 against Germany in the quarterfinals. His rate of 12.5 rebounds per game leads all players in Tokyo. As a result, the juice is heavily on the over, which creates a bunch of value on the under. That’s great news for bettors because Tobey will have to face off against Rudy Gobert tonight. One player — Iran’s Hamed Haddadi — has grabbed more than ten boards against France all tournament, and Haddadi had the benefit of playing at least 20 minutes with Gobert off the court. Also, Tobey averaged a much less impressive 7.5 rebounds per game in qualifying play, so this pick should also get the benefit of regression.
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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.