Top 5 MLB Betting Picks for Friday, August 14
If you’re looking for an edge on the baseball betting front, the Over continues to gain steam. More than 55 percent of MLB games have exceeded the Vegas total over the past seven days – but be wary. The books are aware of this trend, as well, which means you might start to see higher numbers in an attempt to balance things out.
Here are my top MLB betting plays for Friday (Odds courtesy FanDuel Sportsbook):
Check out our daily MLB consensus game odds here >>
N.Y. Mets-Philadelphia 5 Innings Over 4.5 (-122)
For two years, taking the 5 Innings Under on any Jacob deGrom start would usually leave you with more money in your bankroll. And as any Mets fan will tell you (I’m looking at you, Dan Harris), that was due to a combination of deGrom’s utter dominance and the car crash that is the New York offense. But New York ranks seventh in scoring over the first five innings this season (3.10 runs per game), while the Phillies sit fifth (3.29). DeGrom has allowed two runs in each of his first two five-inning stints in 2020, and a similar result Friday should push this one past the total.
Pittsburgh-Cincinnati Over 8.5 (-102)
The fate of this total play might entirely come down to how deep Sonny Gray goes into this game. The Reds starter has been sensational so far this season, boasting a 0.96 home ERA while ranking tied for second in the league in strikeouts with 35. But he’s averaging just six innings per start – and the Reds’ bullpen has been terrible, ranking second-last in the league in strand rate (59.8 percent) and HR/FB ratio (24.6 percent) while boasting the fourth-highest ERA (6.45). The Pirates’ relievers haven’t been much better, so this game looks like it could be a late-inning slugfest.
Minnesota-Kansas City 2+ 1st Inning Runs (+175)
While Friday’s Pittsburgh-Cincinnati tilt could feature some late offense, there’s potential for some early fireworks in the Land of 10,000 Lakes as the Twins and Royals do battle. While the Twins have scuffled of late, they’re still the No. 1 team in the majors in first-inning scoring and could tee off against Royals starter Jacob Junis, who had an unsightly 6.10 first-inning ERA in 2019. Twins counterpart Jake Odorizzi was only marginally better last season; his 5.16 first-inning ERA was more than a run and a half worse than his full-season mark. Don’t miss the first inning of this one.
Texas Under 6.5 Runs (-110)
Coors Field makes oddsmakers go a bit crazy sometimes. Take the Texas Rangers’ run total, for example. Texas has had one of the least impressive offenses in baseball through the first third of the season, ranking third-last in the majors in slugging percentage (.345) and second from the bottom in wRC+ (69). And the Rockies will trot out a capable rookie in right-hander Ryan Castellini, who held the Mariners without a hit over four scoreless innings in his MLB debut and boasts a 0.8 HR/9 ratio for his minor-league career. It’s hard to see Texas getting to 7+ here.
Patrick Sandoval Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-138)
Sandoval had a rough go of it as a rookie in 2019, boasting an ERA above 5 while walking 4.3 batters per nine innings. And while his 9.6 K/9 rate was impressive, he has taken a bit of a hit in that regard through two starts in 2020 with just eight whiffs over 10 innings. His first two starts went just five innings each, and he’s likely going to need more than that to reach his Vegas K total against the rival Dodgers. While the National League’s L.A.-based club has struggled vs. LHP this year (.352 SLG, 84 wRC+), it’s one of the toughest teams in the league to strike out overall.
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts