Top 5 MLB Betting Picks for Friday, August 21
It was oh-so-close to being a 4-1 Thursday – but given my 0-5 Wednesday, I’ll take three out of five.
Most importantly, my longshot of the day (San Francisco and the Over 9.5) connected at +280, making up for my gut-wrenching Cincinnati -1.5 loss in which the Reds led by two entering the ninth inning but coughed up three runs to lose the game outright. MLB wagering tip #5,401: Bullpens are the scourge of sports betting.
Here are my top MLB betting plays for Friday (Odds courtesy FanDuel Sportsbook):
Patrick Corbin Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-152)
I would feel much better about this pick if Corbin were one of those select few pitchers given the opportunity to routinely pitch into the seventh inning or beyond. Alas, Corbin has gone more than six innings just once over his first four starts and has just six total strikeouts in his previous two outings. But the Marlins own the seventh-highest strikeout rate in the majors at 25.2 percent – so we might not need more than five innings from Corbin to get to this K total.
Baltimore Orioles ML (+102)
We (assuming you rode with me) were burned the last time we took the Orioles outright, but the conditions are good for a bounce-back play here. The Orioles send John Means to the hill Friday against visiting Boston; Means is off to a rough start, but he likely won’t last long before ceding to a Baltimore bullpen that has struggled with strand rate but is ranked 10th in FIP (3.88). Boston starter Colten Brewer has a 5.6 BB/9 rate for his career, and that gives the O’s an edge here.
Phillies-Braves Over 8.5 (-104)
This pick really comes down to what Philadelphia brings to the table in its series opener with division-rival Atlanta. On the positive side of things, the Phillies boast the No. 4 offense in the first five innings of their games in 2020, averaging 3.38 runs over that span. But as I’m sure you’re well aware, that’s completely negated by a Phillies bullpen that boasts the worst ERA in the majors at 8.07. I see Philly scoring early, and the Braves scoring late – so I’m taking the Over.
Garrett Richards Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-108)
Only one team in the majors enters the weekend with a team strikeout rate below 20 percent – and it’s the red-hot Houston Astros, who bring an eight-game winning streak into San Diego on Friday. That alone would make the under on Garrett Richards’ K total a viable play – but it’s clear that Richards isn’t the same flame-thrower he has been in years past, averaging just 6.6 K/9 over 28 2/3 innings. I don’t see him getting five strikeouts in this one.
Rangers-Mariners Under 4.5 1st Five Innings (-104)
Slow starts have been a problem for both the Texas Rangers and Seattle Mariners this season, no matter who the opposing pitcher. Seattle ranks fifth-last in runs scored over the first five innings (2.22), just ahead of the 26th-place Rangers (2.12). And that trend has stood up over each teams’ previous three games, in which they’ve averaged just 3.33 combined first-five-inning runs. You’ll have to sweat this one a bit, but it should come through.
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