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Top 5 MLB Betting Picks for Friday, July 24

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Ahhhhhhh.

That’s the word sports bettors are sharing en masse Friday as they’re treated to a full slate of MLB games for the first time in nearly 10 months. All but two of the league’s 30 teams are in action – and with most of the top starting pitchers in baseball toeing the rubber for their respective teams, we could see a spate of low-scoring games.

Here are my top MLB betting plays forFriday (Odds courtesy FanDuel Sportsbook):

Check out our daily MLB consensus game odds here >>

Atlanta-N.Y. Mets U4.5 First 5 Innings (-170)

Let’s start with a softball play here – and they don’t get much softer than this, especially if you’ve been following DeGrom’s incredible 5 innings trend. The Mets ace is an incredible 40-15-3 in favor of the under over his previous 58 starts dating back to the early stages of the 2018 season. That’s due in part to his incredible form, and in part to the disaster that is the New York offense – and we’d expect both of those trends to continue Friday against Braves ace Mike Soroka, who boasted the fifth-lowest ERA in the National League last season (2.58). This one won’t help you pay off your mortgage, but if you’re looking for a low-risk way to get into the MLB betting pool, this is the wager for you.

Cincinnati 1st Inning Result (+230)

It might surprise you to know that the Cincinnati Reds were the highest-scoring first-inning team in the majors last year, averaging 0.81 runs per game. And they’re in great position to be near the league leaders again, blessed with one of the most talented 1-through-5s in the majors. Imagine having to face perennial Japanese League hitting phenom Shogo Akiyama, OBP savant Joey Votto, and a trio of hitters in Eugenio Suarez, Mike Moustakas and Nicholas Castellanos) who combined to belt 111 home runs last season. Tigers starter Matthew Boyd allowed the third-most home runs in baseball last year (39), and could be in for some early struggles at the Great American Bandbox.

Tampa Bay-Tampa Bay Double Result (+130)

You could forgive the Toronto Blue Jays for coming out flat to start the shortened season – after all, they went from being able to play their home games at Rogers Centre to being shipped out of Canada and off to Pittsburgh (where they were denied the opportunity to play their home games in the Pirates’ stadium) to considering Baltimore’s Camden Yards to FINALLY settling on Sahlen Field in Buffalo, N.Y. And while there’s always fun in pointing out that the Rays are used to playing in front of empty stadiums, the fact is that having the home-field edge here will be especially critical. Add in the fact that Tampa led the majors in bullpen ERA in 2019 (3.71), and we like the Rays going out in front – and staying there.

Philadelphia -1.5 (-102)

You’re going to see an awful lot of betting recommendations going against the Miami Marlins, even in a shortened season – and this one feels like a bit of a steal at -102. The Phillies took what was already an impressive lineup and added outfielder Andrew McCutchen and infielder Didi Gregorius to help provide support for Bryce Harper, Rhys Hoskins and J.T. Realmuto. The Marlins, meanwhile, come into the shortened campaign with a Vegas win total of 24.5 – and the Under (-122) is offering better odds than the Over (+100), if you’re wondering where the public stands. Look for the Phillies to get off on the right foot and win this one comfortably.

Baltimore-Boston U10 (-118)

Unless the game is taking place at Coors Field, the thought of an early-season double-digit total makes me gravitate immediately toward the Under. Sure, you’re not exactly getting a World Series-level pitchers’ duel here with Baltimore sending Tommy Milone to the hill against Boston counterpart Nathan Eovaldi. But early-season games belong to the pitchers; last year saw hurlers produce a collective 4.35 ERA in March and April – the lowest of any monthly stretch in 2019. That’s par for the course from a trends perspective – and even with a less-than-stellar pitching matchup on tap, the Under is the superior play.

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