Top 5 MLB Betting Picks for Friday, September 25th
With just three days remaining in the regular season, there are still five playoff spots up for grabs. The Angels are hanging on by a thread but will need to sweep the Dodgers and get some help from the Rangers, just to tie the Astros. In the National League, the four spots that are up for grabs are not so simple. Eight teams are still alive, with six of them really battling for the final playoff spot. Today is a busy day with a lot of meaningful games. Let’s take a look at the five best bets. Odds courtesy DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Washington Nationals-New York Mets F5 under 4.5 (-113)
Max Scherzer and Rick Porcello are starting today, and both pitchers have great numbers against the lineups they’ll be facing. They both faced off back on August 11th in a game that saw both men go 6.0 innings only giving up a combined three earned runs. Neither the Mets nor the Nationals have been very good offensively this season, and are coming off a 3-2 Mets’ win from yesterday. I’m going to stick with the trends and trust two very good pitchers to take care of two mediocre lineups en route to a low-scoring first few innings.
Chicago Cubs -1.5 (+106)
The cubs look destined to finish with the National League’s third seed and will end their season with a series against their crosstown rivals, the Chicago White Sox. For a stretch, the White Sox were the hottest team in the MLB, but they have since gone cold, losing their last five and seven of their last 10. Dylan Cease gets the start today, and he has been all over the place this season. Some starts are impeccable while in others, he struggles to get any type of rhythm going. The Cubs, on the other hand, have a sure thing on the mound in Yu Darvish. Darvish has yet to throw fewer than 6.0 innings in a game this season. I expect that trend to continue against a struggling White Sox team that is desperately trying to get things right but failing.
Cincinnati Reds ML (+138)
The Reds are one of the hottest teams in baseball having won eight of their last 10 and now find themselves with a Wild Card spot and the ability to jump up into the Central’s second seed. They’ll be taking on the Twins today, and though the Twins currently find themselves in first place in the AL Central and on a four-game winning streak, I think all the momentum favors the Reds in this one. They will have Tyler Mahle on the mound who has been very good since the end of August. He’s prone to give up some runs, and against the Twins, he most certainly will, but he should get some run support from his guys who are taking on Jose Berrios. Berrios is coming off the best start of his season but could struggle against a lineup that has really found its groove. The Reds need this game, while the Twins could use it but don’t need it badly, which is why I’ll give the edge to Cincinnati and take them at a nice price.
Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-110)
Clayton Kershaw is on the bump tonight and is coming off a much needed solid start after two of his worst ones of the season. The Angels are desperate and need to sweep the Dodgers to have any shot at the playoffs, but Kershaw had a phenomenal start against them earlier in the season, and I expect more of the same today in what will be a tuneup for the postseason for him. Andrew Heaney gets the start for the Angels and while he has been pretty good this season, he has given up three earned runs in each of his last three starts and gave up four to the Dodgers in his one start against them this season. That’s too many runs when Kershaw is on the mound. The moneyline is too expensive, but the Dodgers should have no problem putting a fork in their crosstown rivals playoff hopes.
Kansas City Royals over 4.5 runs (-109)
The Royals are taking on the Tigers in a game with absolutely no playoff implications, but once again, I feel that the Royals’ offense is being undervalued against the Tigers and their awful pitching staff. Tonight, Spencer Turnbull gets the start for Detroit, and while he has yet to face the Royals yet, he has been beaten up by lineups throughout this season. I was right on Wednesday when I said that the Royals tend to hit well against bad pitching, and they should be able to take advantage of Turnbull and the Tigers’ bullpen in this one. You could also take a look at the game over, but with Brad Keller starting for the Royals, it’s too hard to predict if the Tigers will score a few runs or struggle to score at all.
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Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.