Top 5 MLB Betting Picks for Wednesday, September 16th
The MLB regular season has just under two weeks remaining, and I’m here to help you capitalize on some of the best bets from around the league as teams make their final push for the postseason. Oddsmakers have been improving since the start of the season, and therefore finding great bets is becoming more and more difficult. But I’ve flipped through the slate and come up with five that I think are the best options for today. Odds courtesy DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Yankees-Blue Jays First 5 under 4.5 (+100)
The Yankees just smoked the Blue Jays last night, but I’m going to expect a different tone in today’s matchup. The Yankees send Gerrit Cole to the mound, and much to the relief of Yankees’ fans, he has started to look like his usual self. In his last two starts, he has 19 strikeouts and just one earned run. Both of those starts came against the Orioles, but up until yesterday’s 20-run affair by the Yankees, Baltimore had actually scored more runs on the season than the Yankees. The Blue Jays haven’t gotten a look at Cole yet this season, and I worry they may have missed their window to do some damage.
On the other side, Tanner Roark gets the start for the Blue Jays, and in his last start against the Yankees, he gave up just two hits in 4.0 innings. The one problem is that both of those hits were home runs, but I’m expecting the Yankees’ bats to cool off a bit after an explosive game. When the bullpens get involved anything can happen, but I like both of these starters to give up very little, and at a good price, this bet is too good to pass up.
Kansas City Royals ML (-120)
The Royals just lost to Matthew Boyd, and I have to say that I am very distraught about it. Boyd has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball this season and it has been incredibly fun to fade him. However, the man on the mound for the Tigers today isn’t much better than Boyd. Tarik Skubal gets the start, and aside from one gem against the Twins, he has been average at best. He has an ERA of 7.27 and a WHIP of 1.50. For reference, Boyd’s is 1.54. The Royals will have Brady Singer on the mound, and he is coming off a one-hit 8.0 inning gem against the Indians. Even if he isn’t that good in this game, he will surely be better than Skubal.
Rangers-Astros First 5 over 4.5 (-132)
One thing is certain when Kyle Gibson takes the mound: the opposition scores a lot of runs. In his last five starts, Gibson has given up less than five earned runs in just one start. Lance McCullers Jr. has not been great this season either but should find some footing against a Rangers’ offense that ranks 29th in the league in scoring. I like the Rangers to score at least once in the first five innings, but I don’t think that run will be necessary for this over to hit comfortably.
New York Mets -1.5 (+128)
This was supposed to be a September 6th rematch between Jacob deGrom and Aaron Nola, a game that saw the Mets run away with a 14-1 victory. However, the Phillies have decided to go with Zack Wheeler, which actually makes me even more confident in the Mets to win this one easily. This will be Wheeler’s third start of the season against the Mets, and he has given up five earned runs in each of the previous two matchups. That’s more than enough help for Jacob deGrom who gets the start for the Mets. You have to go all the way back to August 9th to find a game where he gave up more than one earned run in a game. I’ll take those odds at a really nice price.
Baltimore Orioles +1.5 (-103)
This Orioles vs Braves game is incredibly interesting. The Orioles have lost six of their last seven games and are in serious danger of falling entirely out of the playoff race. They need to win today against Atlanta and will be facing Cole Hamels who hasn’t started a game yet this season. Keegan Akin gets the start for the Orioles and in his last start, he went just 0.2 innings against the Yankees and gave up four earned runs. The Braves are going to score runs against Akin, but the Orioles are going to score against Hamels as well. Hamels likely won’t go more than three or four innings, which means the game will be turned over to the Braves’ bullpen. The Orioles are going to score enough to stay close in this game and potentially even win it. At a fair price, I’ll take the Orioles run line.
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Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.