Top 5 MLB Betting Picks for Wednesday, September 23rd
Just like that, we’re in the final stretch of the MLB season. The playoffs begin less than one week from today, and much is yet to be decided, especially in the National League. With four playoff spots up for grabs and only two teams eliminated from NL playoff contention, it only makes sense that the main focus of today’s picks is the league with so much at stake. Odds courtesy DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Cincinnati Reds over 4.5 runs (+107)
The Reds have worked their way back into the playoff hunt after winning eight of their last 10 games, but still have a long way to go in securing a postseason berth. Today, they will take on Adrian Houser, and while I bet against Houser unsuccessfully last time by taking the Royals moneyline, it wasn’t because Houser pitched well. Houser gave up just two earned runs, but four overall, and unearned runs seem to be a trend when Houser pitches. In his previous start, he gave up two earned runs, but the defense allowed seven total through his four-inning outing. The Reds and Brewers have split the first two games of this series, and I like the Reds to get the win in the rubber match. But just in case something funky happens, I’ll stick with the Reds to score enough off Houser to only need a run or two against the Brewers’ bullpen to cover.
Philadelphia Phillies ML (-129)
I thought about betting the run line, but with the unreliable Zach Eflin on the mound, it’s asking too much to expect him to keep the Nationals off the scoreboard. But what makes this bet so enticing is that Erick Fedde’s numbers against the Phillies this season are far from great. In two starts, he’s thrown 11.0 innings giving up a combined 10 earned runs. The Nationals’ season is essentially over, while Philadelphia is clinging to life in the NL Wild Card race after being swept by Washington in a doubleheader on Tuesday. They need to win this one in order to have any sort of chance heading into the final weekend, and with a matchup against Fedde, they’re a safe play up to -140.
Chicago White Sox ML (+140)
Yes, I am betting against Shane Bieber. The price is too good to pass up, and with Lucas Giolito getting his third crack at the Cleveland starting lineup, I like Chicago to win a low-scoring game. In his previous two starts against the Indians, Giolito has gone 13.0 innings, struck out 15, and given up just two earned runs. Meanwhile, Bieber is getting his second look at the White Sox, and had his worst start of the season against Chicago back in early August. Both Bieber and Giolito will go deep into this game, and both pitchers will give up a few runs, but I trust the White Sox offense more than the Indians’. Therefore, I’m going with the underdog at a price that is too good to pass up.
St. Louis Cardinals-Kansas City Royals over 9 runs (-112)
The Cardinals and the Royals have scored five runs in each of the first two games of their three-game series, but with Carlos Martinez and Danny Duffy getting the starts today, the bats are finally going to come alive and clear this over with ease. Martinez has not gone more than four innings since returning from a shoulder injury, and in all three starts, he has looked shaky and left opportunities for opponents to score. The Cardinals finally find themselves above .500 and firmly in the mix for one of the final NL playoff spots, and will bring their bats to back up their struggling pitcher. Danny Duffy gets the start for Kansas City, and in two of his last three starts has given up six earned runs. This has all the makings of a slugfest.
Houston Astros-Seattle Mariners over 8.5 runs (-114)
Zack Greinke has given up at least three earned runs in each of his last six starts, even managing to make the Diamondbacks’ offense look competent in his last outing. The Astros’ offense has been a problem all season, but came to life last night against the Mariners and should be able to find continued momentum in this game against Nick Margevicius. In the previous two games of this series, one team has found ways to score while the other struggled, but with the pitching matchup set for tonight, both offenses should find a spark and send this one over the current line.
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