Top 5 MLB Betting Plays for Wednesday, September 2

by James Bisson |
Sep 02, 2020

The â€˜dogs are starting to have their day in MLB betting circles â€“ as are Over bettors.

Underdogs have won outright at a 44 percent clip over the previous seven days of baseball action; that number is even higher (44.6 percent) on the road â€˜dogs. And with the Over cashing at a 60-percent clip over that same span, brave bettors rolling with Underdog/Over parlays had a really nice end to the month of August.

Here are my top MLB betting plays for Wednesday (Odds courtesy FanDuel Sportsbook):

Check out our daily MLB consensus moneylines here >>

St. Louis ML (+136)

Iâ€™m rolling with a theme in this edition of my betting picks, starting with a Cardinals team that has rolled to a three-game winning streak to remain in the hunt for top spot in the NL Central. And St. Louis has done it on the strength of an offensive barrage, having scored 30 total runs over that stretch. That includes a 23-run outburst over the first two games of its series with the Reds, who have dropped three straight to erode bettor confidence entirely.

Tampa Bay ML/Over 7.5 (+223)

The Rays and New York Yankees have exchanged 5-3 victories to open their pivotal three-game series. Tampa Bay is well-positioned to take the rubber match behind talented starter Charlie Morton. He returns from the DL to face Yankees starter Jordan Montgomery, who has allowed homers in three straight and has has allowed nine runs in 15 2/3 innings over his past three starts. I like the Rays to win outright, with enough run-scoring to convert the Over.

Washington-Philadelphia Over 4.5 1st 5 Innings (-102)

This one is just too good to pass up, given how these teams have fared early in games this season. The Phillies lead the majors in scoring over the first five innings at a whopping 2.87 runs per game (2.95 at home), while the Nationals rank eighth at 2.33. Nationals starter Max Scherzer has ERAs over 5 in both the first and fifth innings, which gives me just enough confidence to take the over despite Philadelphia counterpart Zack Wheelerâ€™s hot start (3-0, 2.58 ERA).

Adrian Houser Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-122)

There could be a whole lot of strikeouts in this game, as the two lineups with the worst K rates in baseball tangle in Milwaukee. The teams combined to whiff 22 times in Detroitâ€™s series-opening 12-1 rout of the Brewers, and weâ€™re expecting a similar showing Wednesday. Houser has seen his K rate dip from 9.5 in 2019 to 6.5 so far this year, but a date with the Tigers should cure what ails him. He should only have to pitch into the fifth inning to cash the Over.

Arizona (+172)

Letâ€™s roll with one more road underdog just for kicks. And Iâ€™m making this pick strictly based on just how filthy Arizona starting pitcher Zac Gallen has looked this year. Gallen boasts a 2.09 ERA and 1.02 WHIP through his first seven starts while limiting opponents to a minuscule 6.5 hits per nine innings. Dodgers starter Walker Buehler has struggled with home runs and walks so far this season, making the Diamondbacks an intriguing underdog play here.