Top 5 MLB Player Props for Monday, July 11 (2022)
It’s a new week, and we’re going to get it started off right by cashing some player props. My top five player props will give you a card with action throughout the entire day. So all you get to do is sit back, relax and watch your bankroll grow on this fine Monday.
Michael Pineda Over 5.5 Hits Allowed (-135)
Detroit vs. Kansas City 2:10 pm ET
Pineda’s peripheral numbers may look decent with a 3.62 ERA and 1.18 WHIP, but a closer look reveals that he’s due for some significant regression. Pineda is in the bottom ten percent of the majors in average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, barrel rate, and every other expected statistic. He’s overdue to get pummeled, and the Royals will keep putting the ball in play as they have the fifth-lowest strikeout rate in the majors. The Royals already racked up seven hits in five innings off Pineda in May. They should repeat that as they’ll make a lot of hard contact this afternoon.
Brayan Bello Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-165)
Boston vs. Tampa Bay 7:10 pm ET
Bello made his major league debut just five days ago against this Tampa Bay team, and it did not go as planned. He gave up four runs in four innings while only striking out two. He’ll get another shot at them tonight, and he should have more success this time. Bello flashed elite stuff as his four-seam fastball and sinker touched 97 mph. However, his change-up was his primary pitch. His stuff and pitch mix is enough to keep big league hitters off-balance, and the Rays do have the seventh-highest strikeout rate in the majors. So with the debut jitters out of the way, expect more swings and misses against Bello tonight.
Aaron Nola Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-150)
Philadelphia vs. St. Louis 7:15 pm ET
Phillies ace Aaron Nola has been just as good if not better than when he was a Cy Young candidate in 2018. He’s always had elite stuff, but this season the command has come along and helped produce plenty of strikeouts. Nola enters this start averaging over seven strikeouts per start, and while the Cardinals don’t strike out all that often, we’ve seen them be carved up by pitchers with elite stuff. This total is a bit too low given Nola’s tracked record and has a great deal of value on it.
Sean Manaea Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115)
San Diego vs. Colorado 8:40 pm ET
Manaea has been solid for the Padres this season, but tonight he gets his first taste of Coors Field and the team whose home it is. The Rockies are the best team in baseball when it comes to hitting left-handed pitching. They lead the majors in batting average and OPS against lefties. However, on top of that, they are in thier home park, where they’ve hit drastically better this season. As a team, they’ve hit .280 with a .803 OPS at home versus hitting just .233 with a .632 OPS on the road. Lastly, Manaea will also struggle to get punchouts not only because of the talent of his opposition but the environment as well. The altitude of Coors Field has been proven to impact a pitcher’s ability to spin the ball, and since Manaea puts most hitters away with his slider or change-up, it will affect his strikeout total.
Alex Cobb Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+100)
Arizona vs. San Francisco 9:45 pm ET
According to his underlying numbers, Alex Cobb has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season, but it hasn’t impacted this 4.74 ERA quite yet. He is in the top 25 percent in every expected category, including hard-hit, barrel, and chase rates. The reason is his stuff has ticked up this year as he’s throwing everything two mph harder than in the past. This has also helped him generate more strikeouts. Cobb averages over a strikeout per inning but has not racked up the strikeouts since coming off the IL in June. He should break that spell tonight as he gets his second shot at the Diamondbacks in the last seven days. Last Wednesday, he allowed four runs and punched out three over six innings of work. This rematch should favor Cobb as he is a veteran and will have a better plan of attack against the young free-swinging Diamondbacks.
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