Top 5 MLB Player Props for Thursday, July 28 (2022)
Player props refer to wagers bettors can make based on player performance in a specific game. Most player props are built around the most common statistical benchmarks for a particular sport, such as yards and touchdowns in football. Most player props are straight over/under plays that open at or near -110 and are adjusted based on where the money lands. Examples of baseball player prop bets include over/under 4.5 strikeouts for a starting pitcher or over/under 1.5 total bases for a hitter.
Zack Wheeler: To Record a Win
Over Wheeler’s last nine starts, he is 5-2 with two no-decisions. Wheeler takes on the Pirates for the first time in 2022. Pittsburgh ranks in the league’s bottom half in every advanced metric, 28th in wRC+, 27th in BABIP, 19th in ISO, and 2nd highest K-rate. Wheeler has a great shot at going deep into this game and getting the win.
The Pick: Yes (-125 DraftKings)
Jose Urquidy: o/u 17.5 Outs
Urquidy has hit this number in 55% of his starts but has only reached the six innings mark once in his four starts against Seattle this season. This will be Jose Urquidy’s 5th against the Seattle Mariners in 2022, and too much familiarity could be news for the pitcher. He has given up a total of five home runs in all four of his starts against the Mariners. Ty France, Adam Frazier, Kyle Lewis, Julio Rodriquez, and Eugenio Suarez are all batting .300 or better against Urquidy in their careers.
The Pick: u17.5 outs (+125 DraftKings)
Freddie Freeman: o/u 0.5 RBI
Freddie Freeman is batting .348 with 2 HRs and 4 RBI in the 2nd half of the season. The Rockies are starting Jose Urena, which has to get Freeman excited because, in his career against Urena, he is hitting .412 with a SLG% of .941 and 4 HRs. The Dodgers and Freeman are expected to have a big night as Vegas projects them to score 7.3 runs, the most of any team on today’s slate.
The Pick: 0.5 RBI (-115 DraftKings)
Freddie Freeman: o/u 0.5 HR
Again, Freeman has had success against Rockies’ starter Jose Urena, batting .412 with 4 HRs and 11 RBI in his career. As a left-handed hitter, it is no shock Freeman hits right-handers well, 11 of his 15 HRs have come against RHP, and he has an ISO of .226.
The Pick: 0.5 HR (+425 DraftKings)
Alex Wood: o/u 17.5 Outs
Alex Wood is 6-8 with a 4.21 ERA in 2022. Wood is going against a Chicago Cubs lineup that has been performing over expectations. A lot of that has to do with the fact the Cubs can crush left-handed pitching. The Cubs rank 5th in ISO (.182) and 12th in wOBA (.322) against LHP.
17.5 outs require Wood to pitch a full six innings, which he has only been able to do twice in his last eight starts and only three times the entire year.
The Pick: u17.5 Outs (-150 DraftKings)
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