Top 5 MLB Player Props Friday, July 29 (2022)

by Douglas Ziefel |
Jul 29, 2022

The weekend is almost here, and we’re going to get it started off right with some player props for tonight’s slate that are sure to pad your wallet. So let’s get down to business and break down our top player prop bets of the day.

Anibal Sanchez Over 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-160)

St. Louis vs. Washington 7:05 pm ET

Anibal Sanchez has been knocked around in his first two starts this season. He’s allowed seven earned runs on 10 hits in 10 innings pitched. Now he’s slated to face a St. Louis lineup that is top 10 in wRC+, wOBA, and batting average. Plus, Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt are returning to the lineup well rested after missing the series in Toronto. So don’t be surprised if the Cardinals cash this over very quickly.

Alek Manoah Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-140)

Detroit vs. Toronto 7:07 pm ET

Manoah has been dominant this season as he enters this outing with an 11-4 record and 2.24 ERA. However, what I’m focused on are his strikeouts. He’s gone over this total in 11 of his 19 stars, including four of his last five. Tonight, he faces one of the worst lineups in the majors in Detroit. Detroit is near last in every major batting and run production category, but what they are high on is the strikeouts. The Tigers have the seventh highest strikeout rate in the majors. Given the way Manoah has been dealing of late, he’s almost a sure thing to go over his total here.

Jeffrey Springs Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-113)

Cleveland vs. Tampa Bay 7:10 pm ET

The Guardians come into this matchup boasting the lowest strikeout rate in the majors, but that does not hold true against lefties. The Guardians rank 20th in strikeout rate against left-handers, and Springs has been racking up the strikeouts of late. He’s gone over this total in eight of his last 10 starts, and I’ve found his median projection for this game is closer to six strikeouts. I see a lot of value here with recent history and model projections on his side.

Madison Bumgarner Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-115)

Arizona vs. Atlanta 7:20 pm ET

The Braves are primed to get back on track as they return home tonight. Atlanta has been tremendous against lefties this season. They are top 10 in batting average, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ when facing lefties, and now they get to face Madison Bumgarner, who is way past his prime. MadBum has not gone deep into many games, primarily because he’s been hit too much to do so. He’s gone under this total in 65 percent of his starts which gives us implied odds of -185 that he’ll go under again. Given the Braves’ numbers against lefties, this price should be much higher.

Joe Ryan Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-124)

Minnesota vs. San Diego 9:40 pm ET

The Padres are a team that does not strike out very much, but this number is far too low for a pitcher like Joe Ryan. He’s gone over this total n 53.3 percent of his starts and is coming off a seven-strikeout performance in his last outing. This number is a bit juiced up from the implied odds, but given how Ryan has been pitching of late, I like his chances to rack up the strikeouts tonight.

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