Top 5 NASCAR Betting Picks for Saturday (Daytona Night Race)
We’ve got one race left before the 2020 NASCAR Cup Series playoffs, but Kevin Harvick already clinched the regular-season championship last weekend at the Dover double-header. It was an action-packed weekend for sure, and it saw Hendrick Motorsports drivers Jimmie Johnson and William Byron close in on each other and Matt DiBenedetto for the last two playoff spots.
This weekend’s event at Daytona is sure to be chock-full of drama, as all Superspeedway races tend to be. The series will return to the track’s oval circuit for the first time since Ryan Newman’s terrifying accident back in February.
Since Superspeedways tend to be unpredictable, this is the best time to take a longshot bet or two. Justin Haley won this race last season at 1000/1, although he only did so because of a rain cancellation.
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Manufacturer of Winning Car: Ford (+125)
Superspeedway races are always a crapshoot, but Fords have consistently been at the front of them this year. In February’s Daytona race, a pair of Fords collided on the last lap to give Toyota the win, but the manufacturer still controlled seven of the top-10 positions. Ford also held half of the top-10 at Talladega, including the winner.
Ford has 14 wins on the year. That’s twice as many as Toyota (7) and 10 more than Chevrolet (4). Yet Ford’s odds to win are listed as +125, which gives them implied odds of just 44 percent. That’s six percent worse than their actual 50 percent win rate. Also, Fords have won eight of the 14 Superspeedway races held since 2017.
This line gives you exposure to four of the top-5 favorites: Kevin Harvick (+900), Brad Keselowski (+1100), Joey Logano (+1100), and Ryan Blaney (+1200). This bet will still cash if mid-range plays like Aric Almirola (+2000), Clint Bowyer (+2500), and Matt DiBenedetto (+3000) pull off an upset. Denny Hamlin (+600) is the only favorite excluded from this line, and I’m comfortable taking that risk.
To Finish Top-10: Aric Almirola (+125)
Almirola is one of the best Superspeedway racers in the Cup Series. His two career wins have come at these tracks, and since joining Stewart-Haas Racing in 2018, he’s posted one win, three top-5s, and six top-10s in ten attempts.
While he has much better stats at Talladega than at Daytona, a lot of that has to do with luck. He has been in the wrong place at the wrong time more frequently at this track. And in the 2018 Daytona 500, he missed out on a win (and a top-5 or top-10) after Austin Dillon wrecked him to win.
The best way to gauge how well a driver keeps his car clean at Superspeedway tracks is by looking at the percent of laps they have completed. Among drivers with 30-plus Superspeedway starts, Almirola ranks second with 96.7 percent of his laps completed. For some perspective, Kevin Harvick has completed just 91.7 percent of his laps, while Denny Hamlin has completed 94.6 percent.
Almirola is a great longshot bet to win (+2000) or to finish top-5 (+350). But Superspeedway races are chaotic, and so you can get almost any top-10 line in the plus money. As a result, I’d play this line, as Ford’s strong season and Almirola’s talent combine to make him a great option here.
To Finish Top-10: Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (+125)
Stenhouse is an exciting driver to watch whenever we come to a Superspeedway track. His aggressive driving style helped him earn a pair of wins, and he has posted five top-5s and six top-10s in the 14 races since 2017. That includes a second-place finish in this year’s Talladega race.
Surprisingly, Stenhouse ranks first in the percent of laps completed at Superspeedway tracks among veteran drivers (96.8%). Only two drivers in the field have completed a higher percentage of their laps: John H. Nemechek, with 100 percent completed in two races, and Ross Chastain, with 98.5 percent completed in eight.
Stenhouse has the Superspeedway resume to compete for a top-10 on Saturday, and he proved that he has the equipment back at Talladega. Like Almirola, he is a strong longshot bet to win (+2000) or to finish top-5 (+350). That said, I prefer the extra breathing room afforded by this line.
To Finish Top-10: Ryan Newman (+200)
Ryan Newman had a scary incident at February’s Daytona 500. That said, he almost won the race, and he still posted a top-10 result. Although he only has one career win at these tracks, he has been consistent at them in the back half of his career. In the last 14 Superspeedway races, he has four top-5s and nine top-10s. That’s a 64 percent top-10 rate, much higher than his implied odds of 33 percent.
Newman hasn’t always been a clean Superspeedway racer. But despite that fact, he has still completed 93 percent of his laps at them. That ranks seventh among active drivers with 30-plus starts.
I wouldn’t expect Newman to take a ton of on-track risks this Saturday. While that may keep him from winning the race, he should keep his car clean and post at least a top-10 result.
To Finish Top-10: John H. Nemechek (+275)
Here we have my favorite longshot bet of the week. Nemechek only has two Cup Series races at Superspeedways under his belt, but he finished 11th and eighth in those two appearances. He also completed every lap in both races — that’s pretty good for a rookie!
Nemechek has a respectable Superspeedway record in the Xfinity Series, too. In his four attempts, he notched three top-10s — once in Chip Ganassi Racing equipment, and twice in GMS Racing’s lackluster Xfinity car. His shoddy GMS ride compares well to his new ride at Front Row Motorsports, so he has proven that he can do well at these tracks even in unremarkable cars.
If you want a hail-mary bet, consider playing Nemechek to win (+6600). After all, Justin Haley won at longer odds here last year. But if you just want a good value bet, play Nemechek to finish top-10 at +275, as I expect him to avoid incidents and finish well in Saturday’s race.
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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.